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Paul Giblin on Politics ~

Archive for the 'Surveys, polls and guesses' Category

You ask; I answer. Vol. 3

Tuesday, September 11th, 2007 by Paul Giblin

Jeff Flake

A reader named Mark asked a reasonable question concerning my story today about the sabotage of an online poll about the potential Jeff Flake-Russel Pearce congressional race. The story was headlined “Results are in; online poll doesn’t add up.”

The story can be accessed here: http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/story/97050

Question: “I fail to see how this is even remotely newsworthy. Covering online polls?? If you were to believe some of these so-called online polls, Ron Paul would be a shoo-in for president. Janet Napolitano would have had no chance at getting reelected last year, and Sen. Jon Kyl is in real danger of being recalled. A poll from GOPUSA?? Come on!”

Answer: Mark is correct in that online polls are garbage. That was explained by legitimate pollster Mike O’Neil within today’s story. Heck, the results of the online poll weren’t even included in the story.

But the story really wasn’t about the GOP news site poll. It was about how Pearce and someone apparently aligned with Flake tampered with it.

Pearce admitted to me that he sent an e-mail to supporters telling them how to manipulate the poll to favor him. Then three hours later, he said, he sent another e-mail asking his supporters to ignore the poll. Meanwhile, Flake’s spokesmen Matthew Specht and Mike Haller told me they encouraged Flake’s supporters to vote in the poll, but they denied knowledge of who hacked it to favor Flake.

Integrity and honesty are going to be key themes of a potential Flake-Pearce race. Pearce challenged Flake on those points when he announced that he was forming an exploratory committee as he considers running. Specifically, he said Flake has been less than honest in discussing immigration. Those are strong words for the opening interview of a congressional race.

That’s what makes the story newsworthy. Thanks for asking.

Get your fresh-served Mitt Romney quotage here!

Thursday, June 21st, 2007 by Paul Giblin

More quotage from Mitt Romney

Democrats don’t get any respect

Wednesday, June 20th, 2007 by Paul Giblin

This is bad news for the donkey crowd.The latest Rocky Mountain Poll of Arizona voters shows that Republicans would win just about any possible head-to-head competition between the Republicans

Why Mitt Romney and Bill Clinton are coming to town

Tuesday, June 19th, 2007 by Paul Giblin

Appearances by Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney and potential first gentleman Bill Clinton in Arizona within a week illustrate the state

You ask; I answer. Vol. 1

Thursday, June 7th, 2007 by Paul Giblin

This question was submitted by phone this morning.

Question: Why wasn’t Republican Ron Paul included in the East Valley Tribune’s story today about the Rocky Mountain Poll on presidential candidates?

Answer: Paul, a U.S. representative from Texas, didn’t make the paper because Behavior Research Center, the Phoenix-based firm that conducted the survey, didn’t include him in its research.

Survey director Earl de Berge said the surveys feature the candidates he concludes are the most serious contenders. Alas, Paul didn’t meet his qualifications. The lists are works in progress, de Berge said. For instance, he dropped Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and added former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee for the May survey.

De Berge said he’ll reconsider whether to add Paul before the next Rocky Mountain Poll.

Got a question? Post it in the “Add a comment” section below or e-mail it to pgiblin@evtrib.com.

Assessing John McCain, Hillary Clinton, Mitt Romney and Barack Obama

Thursday, June 7th, 2007 by Paul Giblin

The latest Rocky Mountain Poll raises more questions than it answers, according to Alan Smith, president of Glendale-based political consulting firm Get Momentum Now!The poll, which was conducted by Phoenix-based Behavior Research Center from May 24 to 29, measured Arizona voters

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