John McCain

Presidential candidate John McCain leads opponents Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in hypothetical head-to-head contests among Arizona voters, according to a Rocky Mountain Poll released today, Thursday, May 22.

In a McCain-Obama match-up, the Republican senator from Arizona has an 11-percentage point edge against the Democratic senator from Illinois. The results: McCain 50 percent, Obama 39 percent, and undecided 11 percent.

In a McCain-Clinton election, McCain has an even greater 15-percentage point advantage against the Democratic senator from New York. The specifics: McCain 51 percent, Clinton 36 percent, undecided 11 percent, and someone else 1 percent. 

Survey director Earl de Berge noted that the election is shaping up to be intensely partisan with 84 percent or more Republicans siding with McCain against either Democratic challenger; and conversely, 70 percent or more Democrats close ranks and align with either Obama or Clinton against the presumptive GOP nominee.

 “It appears that much of the GOP hope that Democrats will remain divided after the nomination process is over may be wishful thinking on their part,” de Berge wrote in an analysis.

The real campaign in Arizona will be for the votes of registered independents. McCain polls slightly ahead of the Democrats among independents, with a 2-percentage point advantage against Obama and a 3-percentage point lead against Clinton.

However, independents comprise a disproportionately large segment of the undecided voters. A full 16 percent of independents have yet to decide in a McCain-Obama race, while an even greater 23 percent have to make a choice in a McCain-Clinton race.\

The survey of 630 registered voters was conducted by Phoenix-based Behavior Research Center, a nonpartisan polling firm, from May 12 through 20. It had a margin of error of 4 percentage points, according to the pollsters.

John McCain

Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain would beat either of his Democratic opponents by fair margins in his home state, according to a statewide survey released Tuesday, April 29.

In a hypothetical head-to-head race against Sen. Barack Obama, the results were: McCain 47 percent, Obama 38 percent, and undecided 15 percent, according the poll conducted by Arizona State University/KAET-TV (Channel 8). That gives the home-state candidate a 9 percentage point edge.

In a head-to-head contest with Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, the results were: McCain 53 percent, Clinton 37 percent, and undecided 10 percent. That gives McCain an even more comfortable advantage of 16 percentage points.

The survey-takers probed further and identified the top reasons the respondents sided with their candidate. A sizable portion of the electorate apparently plans to vote against a particular candidate, rather than vote for a candidate.

For example, in the McCain-Obama race, the top three reasons voters said they were supporting McCain were: 1) They don’t like Obama, which turned up 22 percent of the time; 2) They always vote for the Republican candidate, at 20 percent; and, 3) McCain’s experience, 15 percent.

In the same McCain-Obama match-up, the top reasons respondents cited for favoring Obama were: 1) They always vote for the Democratic, which was important for 37 percent; 2) Obama’s message for hope and change, 16 percent; and, 3) They don’t like McCain, 14 percent.

In a McCain-Clinton race, the top reasons for supporting McCain were: 1) They don’t like Clinton, 45 percent; 2) They vote Republican, 18 percent; and, 3) They don’t like Bill Clinton and don’t want another Clinton in the White House, 8 percent.

Also in a McCain-Clinton race, the top reasons respondents told pollsters they selected Clinton were: 1) They vote Democrat, 31 percent; 2) Clinton will change President Bush’s policies and supporting working people, 15 percent; and tied for, 3) Clinton’s against the war in Iraq, and they like her stands on the issues, at 10 percent each.

Poll director Bruce Merrill said there are two reasons Obama did better than Clinton in the head-on-head contests with McCain.

“First, those who identify themselves as political independents divide their vote almost equally between Obama and McCain. Many independents are strongly opposed to the war in Iraq and they tend to oppose (McCain) on that issue,” Merrill said in a prepared statement.

“The second reason Obama does better than Clinton is that Arizonans simply have a strong dislike for Hillary Clinton, even though her husband won the state when he ran for reelection,” he said.

Well, some Arizonans have a strong dislike for her. Clinton beat Obama in Arizona’s Democratic presidential preference election 50.4 percent to 42.4 on Feb. 5, so she has her in-state support group as well.

Interestingly, age, gender and race appear to be only minor considerations for most voters, according to the survey. Or, perhaps, few people admit to pollsters that those factors are important to them.

Either way, among Obama supporters, just 4 percent said they supported him because he’s younger than McCain; while among Clinton supporters, the age issue didn’t register at all. Among McCain supporters, 3 percent said they supported him because he’s older than Obama. McCain supporters didn’t mention age when he was matched up against Clinton.

Regarding gender, 5 percent of Clinton’s followers cited her gender as their top reason to support her; while among McCain supporters, 2 percent cited Clinton’s gender as a reason to vote against her.

Race didn’t show up as a factor in any of the potential match-ups. The independent survey of 577 registered voters statewide was conducted between April 24 and 47. It has a margin of error of 4.0 percentage points, according to the pollsters.  

Congress.org’s latest annual Power Rankings of the members of Congress provides some interesting talking points concerning Arizona’s 10 member delegation.

First a little background: The deep thinkers behind the rankings score each member on a number of factors, including position, indirect influence, legislative activity, earmark passage and “sizzle/fizzle.”

Clearly, nearly all of that is subjective. For example, racking up federal expenditures for earmarks is considered a positive factor in the rankings. Congress.org’s deep thinkers associate earmark passage with political influence. Sure, there’s an argument to be made for that.

Of course, other deep thinkers associate earmark passage with self indulgence, wasteful spending and stains on congressional records. So, what of Sen. John McCain, and Reps. Jeff Flake and John Shadegg who specifically don’t request earmarks? The Power Rankings knock their scores for that. 

Furthermore, Democrats get an automatic edge because they comprise the majority party in both the Senate and House and as a result will score higher in the position and legislative activity categories. That’s to be expected.

So with that preamble…

On the Senate side, Congress.org ranked Republicans McCain is 10^th and Jon Kyl 18^th, or second and third overall among Republicans. Interestingly, McCain’s presidential rivals Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barak Obama place ninth and 11^th in the Senate respectively.

Congress.org attributes McCain’s ranking in part to position as a ranking party member of a committee, his frequent media coverage, positive sizzle and for successfully amending bills.

He’s knocked for running for higher office, because doing so allegedly reduces or defuses his power to help current constituents. Other deep thinkers could offer the argument that emerging as his party’s nominee for president may give him a certain amount of added clout, but, of course, it’s Congress.org’s rankings so their deep thinkers get the final word.

Kyl should climb in coming years with the real and perceived power associated with his new No. 2 position in the GOP leadership team.

On the House side, Congress.org ranked Democrat Ed Pastor 84^th; Republican Shadegg 211^th, Democrats Raul Grijalva 246^th, Gabrielle Giffords 277^th and Harry Mitchell 334^th; and Republicans Jeff Flake 372^nd, Trent Franks 387^th and Rick Renzi dead last at 435^th.

Also of note, Renzi was the only member in either the Senate or House to get a negative score.

Ron Paul

Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul has surged to a devastating lead in Arizona, far outdistancing John McCain and all other challengers, just three weeks before the state’s presidential preference election, according to a straw poll of GOP yuppies conducted in a Scottsdale bar during happy Thursday night.

Seasoned political analysts associated with the Republican Professional Club noted their straw poll was something less than perfectly scientific – and only partly because they sold the 515 ballots used in the poll for $5 each.

Nonetheless, here are the, ahem, official results:

– Ron Paul, 80 percent.

– John McCain, 12 percent.

– Mitt Romney, 3 percent.

– Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson and blank ballots, 1 percent each.

– Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter and two people whose driver’s licences reveal them to be Charles Jensen and John Galt, 0.5 percent each. 

The only definitive aspect of the pay-per-skew poll is that it raised $2,575 for the club. 

Fred Thompson

Republican presidential candidate Fred Thompson had some fun Thursday when reporters in
Phoenix asked him about the strategy behind a TV commercial that was broadcast during the CNN/YouTube debate on Wednesday.

“Oh, it’s a very secret strategy. I can’t let you in on it,” he said during a brief press conference after speaking at two fundraisers.

All the candidates who participated in the debate were permitted to submit YouTube-style videos to be broadcast during the program. All but Thompson submitted videos that focused on their own achievements and qualifications.

Thompson’s spot instead showed old clips of Mitt Romney defending abortion rights and Mike Huckabee saying tax increases were fine with him. Alas, now Romney is opposed to abortion, and Huckabee is against tax raises.

Thompson said his ad took a legitimate look at his rivals’ evolving position on important issues. “The question is: Do you look at their record for several years or do you look at what they’re saying now, in order to determine what they’re going to do in the future?” Thompson said.

The answer was not provided during the press conference. On another topic, a reporter also asked Thompson if he expected to win Arizona’s GOP presidential preference election on Feb. 5.

“Ah, yes,” he replied without elaborating.

Pulling that off will require plenty of secret strategy work. A poll released by Behavior Research Center earlier this month had Thompson running in fourth place among the GOP presidential candidates in Arizona. The survey had Rudy Giuliani first with 20 percent support among self-identified Republican heads of households. Arizona Sen. John McCain was second at 18 percent, while Romney was third at 11 percent. Thompson was next at 10 percent.

My full story on Thompson’s first campaign visit to Arizona is available here: Posted in Fred Thompson, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giulani, Surveys, polls and guesses, VIPs in AZ | 1 Comment »