Happy donkeys

The total number of voters statewide dipped since the presidential preference election on Feb. 5, however the number of registered Democrats increased.

Overall, the number of voters dropped by less than 1 percentage point from 2.71 million voters to 2.69 million voters March 1, according to the Secretary of State’s office.

“The decrease in the voter registration totals really reflect continuing voter roll clean-up efforts by county recorders,” Secretary of State Jan Brewer said in a statement.

The party-by-party details tell a different story though.

The number of Republicans fell less than 1 percentage point from 1.04 million voters to 1.03 million.

The number of Democrats increased just more than 1 percentage point from 905,000 voters to 916,000.

The number of Libertarians dwindled by 4 percentage points from 17,700 voters to 16,900.

And the number of independents dropped by 3 percentage points from 748,000 voters to 725,000.

Those types of numbers underscore why Democrats insist Arizona is becoming increasingly competitive.

In pure numbers, Republicans still outnumber Democrats by 121,000 voters. However, the Dems gained 11,200 voters during the last reporting period, while the GOP lost 5,500 voters. That means the Democrats narrowed the gap by 16,700 voters in a single reporting period.

It’s like an SAT question: If a donkey and an elephant facing the same direction start 121 miles apart and the donkey trots 11.2 mph forwards and elephant lumbers 5.5 mph backwards, how long will it take for the donkey to overtake the elephant?

Of course past results don’t guarantee future performance, but if those trends to continue unchanged, the Democratic Party will become the majority party in Arizona in about spring 2010, which would be just in time for a Janet Napolitano-John Shadegg U.S. Senate race.

And in the meantime, state Democratic Party officials contend that independents break about 2-1 toward Democratic candidates.

Another interesting point is the number of independents decreased. Until late last year, the number of new independent voters joining the state’s voter roles was greater rate than number of new Democrats and Republicans combined. Even last year though, Democrats were registering more new voters than Republicans.

The next couple of voter registration reports, which will reflect the parties’ efforts to register new voters before the fall primary and general elections, should provide greater insight into whether the current numbers are just quirky blips of statistics, or early indications of a dramatic shift in Arizona politics. 

Barbara McConnell Barrett

President Bush nominated Paradise Valley attorney and education advocate Barbara McConnell Barrett to be U.S. ambassador to Finland on Thursday. She currently serves as chief executive of Triple Creek Ranch, a luxury resort in Montana. Barrett is a renascence woman whose varied career has delved deeply into the realms of business, politics and education.

A final thought on Super Tuesday…

My favorite dark horse candidates failed in their attempts to win Arizona’s presidential preference elections.

Democrat Sandy Whitehouse, a Tucson-area resident who ran on the platform that she would cut government spending by saving a line of type on all presidential correspondence, garnered 577 votes. That came just 200,814 votes shy of fellow challenger Hillary Clinton’s winning total.

Meanwhile, Republican Michael P. Shaw, a Glendale resident who said he ran to represent the ’hood and the God of Israel, attracted 59 votes. That was a mere 227,701 votes short of rival John McCain’s tally.

Alas, there’s always 2012. Remember that McCain didn’t do so hot the first time he ran for president either.

John McCain’s biggest challenge between now and Nov. 4 is to say focused, said Sen. Lindsay Graham, R-S.C., who traveled with McCain on Super Tuesday and Just Getting By On Coffee Wednesday.

“His world is about to change,” Lindsay told reporters at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport before boarding McCain’s jet for Washington, D.C., on Wednesday morning.

“The more presumptive nominee status you obtain, the more security you’re going to have, and the relationship he has with y’all may change a bit. But I’d hate to be the Secret Service agent who told him he couldn’t talk to y’all,” said the native South Carolinian.

McCain has been becoming more mentally prepared every day for the rigors of becoming the presumptive nominee, party leader and president, Graham said.

 “There’s nobody I’ve ever met more prepared to lead this country in the times in which we live. The challenges are great. They’re immense. And John has paid a heavy price for what he believes in life,” he said.

“He’s sacrificed for his country – and I don’t think it’s an accident that God has kept him around all these years. He’s got one last mission to go on. I really, honest to God believe that, that he’s here for a reason and his next assignment will be as commander in chief,” Graham said.

John McCain

Bruce Ash, a national  committeeman for Arizona, told me that he expected John McCain would clean up nationwide on Super Tuesday.

“His strength is coming out in full force tonight,” Ash said as a band played “Stars and Stripes Forever” at McCain’s victory party at the Arizona Biltmore Resort & Spa on Tuesday night.

“No matter who the nominee is for the Democrats, I believe the choices are clear. The choices are stark and distict. And I believe Republicans in Arizona, from the top of the ticket down, are going to prosper as a result of Sen. McCain’s candidacy,” Ash said. ” believe he is going to have long coattails across the country. And I truely believe that. That’s not just fluff that a committeeman gives you for the paper.”

Ron Paul

Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul has surged to a devastating lead in Arizona, far outdistancing John McCain and all other challengers, just three weeks before the state’s presidential preference election, according to a straw poll of GOP yuppies conducted in a Scottsdale bar during happy Thursday night.

Seasoned political analysts associated with the Republican Professional Club noted their straw poll was something less than perfectly scientific – and only partly because they sold the 515 ballots used in the poll for $5 each.

Nonetheless, here are the, ahem, official results:

– Ron Paul, 80 percent.

– John McCain, 12 percent.

– Mitt Romney, 3 percent.

– Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson and blank ballots, 1 percent each.

– Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter and two people whose driver’s licences reveal them to be Charles Jensen and John Galt, 0.5 percent each. 

The only definitive aspect of the pay-per-skew poll is that it raised $2,575 for the club. 

Barack Obama

Campaign officials for some of the presidential candidates have been trying to persuade Arizona voters to register in time to vote in the presidential preference election on Feb. 5. The deadline is Monday.

Democrat Barack Obama’s campaign sent an e-mail Saturday to supporters in Arizona to remind them to.

The e-mail stated: “You can be part of our movement in Arizona, but you must be registered to vote as a Democrat. And Arizona’s voter registration deadline is January 7 – just a few days from now. Make your support count. Register to vote today.”

In accordance with state law, only voters registered in recognized political parties are permitted to vote in the constest that will help determine the major parties’ presidential nominee. Registered Republicans will be given Republican ballots. Registered Democrats will be given Democrat ballots. Registered independents, who comprise 28.1 percent of the state’s voter base, won’t be allowed to vote at all.

Internet magazine publisher and independent U.S. House candidate Annie Loyd said she doubts many independents will rush to change their status.

“The independents that I’ve spoken to over the last week in particular, and in the last month, I have not heard of anybody re-registering to vote in the presidential primary election,” she said. “In fact, I know of more people that have just reregistered as independents and forgone their registration as Democrat or a Republican, because they’re not drawn to any of the candidates.”

Many independents are waiting for an independent candidate or a third-party candidate to emerge on the national scene, said Loyd, who is running against incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. John Shadegg.

She noted that several media outlets reported early this week that New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg agreed to speak at a nonpartisan conference Sunday in
Oklahoma, in possible preparation for an independent presidential bid. The conference is being staged by Unity08, a group also hopes to advance a nonpartisan ticket.

Loyd said, “What’s important is that independents don’t fee represented. They don’t feel that either party represents them.” She is seeking a seat in Arizona’s 3^rd Congressional District, which takes in central and northern Phoenix. 

The best political speech I’ve heard in some time was delivered by Republican presidential candidate Michael P. Shaw, who wore sunglasses and a T-shirt that read “Geek Squad” to a public event at the State Capitol on Tuesday.

State elections officials, campaign workers and a number of reporters had gathered at the Capitol to watch Secretary of State Jan Brewer conduct a drawing to determine the order that the names of
Arizona’s 48 official candidates will appear ballots for the presidential preference election is Feb. 5.

I wrote about the event in Tuesday’s paper. The newspaper version of the story can be accessed here: Shaw was one of two presidential candidates who attended the drawing. He stayed afterward as a press conference broke out. Shaw watched the Q&A session for a while, then objected quite strongly when I asked Brewer whether she thought political pranksters had juked the system to get their names on the official ballots.

Check in again at www.evtrib.com on Thursday. I have another interesting story about
Arizona’s quirky presidential preference election…

The White House

Sandy Whitehouse, who is one of Arizona’s official presidential candidates, is running for the White House on the strength of her name. Naturally.

“I’m running for president because my name is Whitehouse,” Whitehouse said. If elected, she said will consolidate the first and second lines of all presidential correspondence, thus saving the federal government money associated with printing the words “President Whitehouse” and the words “White House” on letterhead.

She told me that the savings would be used to fund universal healthcare, education for all children, grants to stop global warming and a guest-worker program. Furthermore, she would halt federal funding for war profiteers, atom bombs, fusion bombs, uranium weaponry, big talk and threats to under-developed third-world countries.

“I figure with those two objectives, I will be able to fund all the things this country needs,” said Whitehouse, a Democrat. Furthermore, she’s retired, so she has enough time on her hands to run the country, she said.

Whitehouse is a great-grandmother who lives in Corona De Tucson, which is just outside of
Tucson. She married into her presidential-sounding name decades ago. Her husband, Bruce Whitehouse, is Corona De Tucson’s fire chief. “It’s a good English name,” she said.

Whitehouse said she is running a self-funded campaign to avoid the scourge of lobbyists. So far, she has spent a total of 41 cents, which was used to buy a stamp to send her nominating paperwork to the Secretary of State’s Office, though she may double or even triple her cash outlay before Feb. 5.

Whitehouse said she is prepared to debate all her Democratic opponents, even frontrunner Hillary Clinton. “I like Hillary. I’m particularly found of her choice of husbands,” she said.

Whitehouse said she is counting on her own husband to vote for her, which brings her current projected vote count to precisely four. She said she is trying to secure three more – two grandchildren and a grandson-in-law. “I’ll have seven votes. And the way this is spread out over a large field, I could win, because I think that’s a solid block,” she said.