While John McCain had strong support at his rally in Prescott on Saturday, there were some people in the crowd with different political agendas.

Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and Ron Paul supporters held signs and distributed literature about their candidates as well.

One particular Paul supporter was fairly entertaining. As a row of newspaper reporters typed madly at their computers at an outdoor table immediately after McCain’s speech, the Paul enthusiast kept walking back and forth in front of them carrying a Paul campaign sign. He kept saying, “Remember the revolution! Remember the revolution!”

According to Paul’s Web site, his, ahem, revolution persists. It says, “Dr. Paul is continuing his bid for the Republican nomination in order to spread the message of constitutional government and personal freedom, take the GOP back to its traditional roots, and continue the grassroots activism his candidacy inspired.”

So noted.

Meanwhile, El Mirage resident William Crum made the trip to Prescott specifically to oppose McCain. He held a hand-made sign that stated, “McCain = 100 Years of War With a Draft (Men and Women).”

Crum, a Vietnam veteran, said he differs with McCain’s approach to the war in Iraq.

“His opinion right now is basically stay the course,” Crum said. “You know what? We can’t afford that. Our country and our service guys can’t stay the course. I mean, why else would they be going back three, four, five times? That’s why I feel that if this war keeps going, we’re going to have to start a draft again, because where else are we going to get people? The reason I believe that we’re going to have to get men and women is because there are not enough men.”

I covered McCain’s speech in the Tribune and my story can be accessed here.

OK, and quick note on Paul’s puzzling campaign sign, in which the letters E, V, O and L within the word “revolution” are backwards and in red. If you read just the red letters backwards, it spells ”love.”

Trippy, man.

Also, if you play some of Paul’s campaign speeches backwards, it sounds like he says, “Number 9,” “I am the walrus” and “Coo-coo ca choo.” Really.

Rep. Harry Mitchell today asked House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to include his legislation that blocks Congress’ automatic pay raise in a broader economic stimulus package.

Mitchell, a Democrat from Arizona, and presidential hopeful Rep. Ron Paul, a Republican from
Texas, introduced legislation Tuesday that would quash a scheduled automatic pay increase of nearly $4,400 that every member will receive in 2009.

Every member of Congress will be paid $169,300 this year – a $4,100 increase from last year pay.

Mitchell tried to block the $4,100 pay increase last year, and found 29 co-sponsors to support it, but the legislation never made it to the House floor. Mitchell pledged to donate his pay raise to charity. (No word yet on which charities will get the bonanza.)

Mitchell said the timing is wrong to accept another pay raise. Here’s the text of his letter to Pelosi:

January 23, 2008 

The Honorable Nancy PelosiSpeaker
United States House of Representatives

U.S. Capitol Building, H-232
Washington, DC 20510 

Madam Speaker: 

Yesterday our colleague Dr. Ron Paul and I introduced H.R. 5087, a bill to block the automatic pay raise Members of Congress are scheduled to receive next year. 

I hope you will agree that this is the wrong time for Congress to raise its own pay and that doing so sends the wrong message to the American people.  I urge you to support H.R. 5087 and include it as a part of the upcoming economic stimulus package. 

As you work with the President and Republican leadership to build a bipartisan economic stimulus package to strengthen the nation’s weakening economy, I know you are familiar with the statistics: nationwide inflation shot up 6 percent in 2007 and the same gallon of gas that cost $2.20 a year ago costs more than $3 today. New home construction dropped 25 percent, the largest decrease in 27 years.  Fears of a recession have sent the stock market into a tailspin. Unemployment is up; home sales are down; and markets around the world are on shaky ground. 

Even in my home state of Arizona, which for so long seemed immune to economic woes that plagued other parts of the country, is feeling the effects of the Bush recession. Unemployment in my state rose 42 percent between September and December alone, and now 143,800 Arizonans are unemployed. In the East Valley, which I represent, foreclosures increased more than 500 percent in 2007 and in metro Phoenix, 10,000 homes were foreclosed – an 88 percent increase over 2006. Home prices fell 11 percent. 

The American people didn’t get a pay raise this year.  I do not know how in good conscience, we, as their representatives in Congress can not only accept one, but insist on another one for next year.  When I campaigned for Congress nearly two years ago, I heard from the people in my District that they were disappointed that Members of Congress approved their own pay raise, but cut critical services that made a significant impact on the lives of everyday Americans.  Americans are suffering right now and I hope this Congress has the courage to change course. 

Thank you, as always, for your consideration. 

Sincerely, 

Harry E. Mitchell

Member of Congress

John McCain (right) and a few of his friends

A Republican insider suggested a new drinking game involving televised presidential debates. OK, the rules are still evolving, but here’s the working model so far…

You and your friends settle down in front of the tube to watch the next Republican debate. Everyone picks a candidate.

If your candidate is John McCain, every time he says “my friends,” you gulp some beer.

If your candidate is Mitt Romney, every time he mentions “Olympics,” you take a slug.

If your candidate is Rudy Giuliani, every time he utters “9/11,” drink away.

The Republican insider hasn’t yet determined the drinking cues for Mike Huckabee, Fred Thompson or Ron Paul yet. Give him time…

On the Democratic side…

If your candidate is Hillary Clinton, when she says “experience,” you gulp.

If your candidate is Barack Obama, when he says some version of “make history,” you make your beer history.

The cues for John Edwards, and well, whoever else is still left on the Dem side, haven’t been finalized.

Any viewer who hasn’t passed out before the end of the program declares himself or herself the winner. Congratulations.

Initially, the Republican insider who brainstormed this idea suggested Obama’s cue ought to be the word “change,” but I had to veto that idea on the basis that it would cause alcoholism.

Ron Paul and Rudy Giuliani

Aides for presidential candidates Rudy Giuliani and Ron Paul filed the necessary paperwork at the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office on Friday to be included in
Arizona’s presidential preference election on Feb. 5.

To date, the list features eight Republicans and seven Democrats. Both sides include several mystery candidates.

The Republicans: Known candidates Giuliani, Paul, Duncan Hunter and Mitt Romney, plus people named John Fitzpatrick, Daniel Gilbert, John McGratch and Jack Shepard.

The Democrats: Known candidates Christopher Dodd, John Edwards and Mike Gravel, plus people named Frank Lynch, Leland Montell, Philip Tanner and Evelyn Vitullo.

Secretary of State’s Office spokesman Kevin Tyne noted that according to Arizona law, prospective candidates need only be U.S. citizens to appear on the ballot. “As in year’s past, we have citizens who know that and just get their names on the list,” Tyne said. “They don’t necessarily have campaign committees or are nationally involved.”

According to Shepard’s candidacy paperwork, he lives in Rome – yes,
Rome, Italy.

The Secretary of State’s Office will continue to collect paperwork from presidential candidates until 5 p.m., Dec. 17. State officials will draw lots for the order in which the names appear on the ballot at 10 a.m., Dec. 18.

John McCain (center)

The bad news for John McCain and the people running his presidential campaign is that some of his GOP rivals have decided to take the fight to him in Arizona, said Matt Salmon, who is serving as McCain’s state co-chairman.

In past presidential campaigns, generally candidates simply forfeited a leading contender’s home state and spent their time and money elsewhere. Not this year.

Republicans Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani and Ron Paul all have been on barn-storming tours through the 48^th state trying to pick up money and votes. As a result, McCain has had to spend time here as well, Salmon said.

Finishing second to Romney or Giuliani in Arizona simply is not an option.

The good news is that despite Romney’s and Giuliani’s raids, McCain still holds a commanding position here, Salmon said. In fact, McCain will do quite well in Arizona, he said. Salmon’s predictions:

1)      McCain will take the Arizona Republican primary;

2)      McCain will win the nation Republican nomination;

3)      McCain will take Arizona again in the general election, no matter which Democrat opposes him.

“Arizona definitely will go Republican again, especially if the nominee is Hillary Clinton – and I think that’s a fait accompli,” Salmon said. “Now, if it were Bill Clinton, I would say something different. But if it’s Hillary Clinton, there’s no doubt in my mind that Arizona is going to go Republican.”

For much more on the Arizona primary election, check out my story that ran in Thursday’s paper: http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/story/102064

Harry Mitchell, No. 221½.

Democrat Reps. Harry Mitchell and Gabrielle Giffords have established themselves as true moderates during their first six months in the U.S. House, according to an op-ed piece headlined “For Freshmen, Fresh Voting,” by John Fortier, a research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank.

In fact, Fortier writes that he was surprised to find that most of the freshman Democrats in the House are voting on the conservative side of their party. “None of the 30 Democrats who replaced Republicans are among the most liberal 20 percent of Congress,” Fortier writes.

Fortier bases his findings on Voteview, a statistical rating compiled by political scientists Keith Poole and Howard Rosenthal, who have been in the congressional ranking business for decades. Their latest rankings are based on the House members’ voting records during the first six months of 2007.

Fortier compares the new Democrats’ voting records against their Republican predecessors’ records. “Among the biggest changes, J.D. Hayworth, R-Ariz., and Chris Chocola, R-Ind., who had voting records among the 10 percent most conservatives, have been replaced by Harry Mitchell, D, and Joe Donnelly, D, respectively, who rank almost exactly in the middle of the 110^th Congress,” Fortier writes.

A little background is in order here. Voteview ranks all 435 members of the House each session, though Poole told me the rankings frequently include more than 435 spots to account for representatives who serve part of their terms, leave office and are replaced by others.

The most liberal representative is assigned the rank of 1. The most conservative representative is assigned the rank of 435, or higher if circumstances dictate. Using that scale, here’s how the
Arizona delegation ranked during the first half of 2007:

Raul Grijalva, Democrat, tied with four others for 26½.

Ed Pastor, Democrat, tied with nine others for 77½.

Gabrielle Giffords, Democrat, 219.

Harry Mitchell, Democrat, tied with one other for 221½.

Rick Renzi, Republican, 261.

Trent Franks, Republican, 426.

John Shadegg, Republican, 432.

Jeff Flake, Republican, 433.

Statistically, the middle of the pack is 217½, so both Giffords and Mitchell fell into the conservative half of both the Democrats and the entire House. Another interesting note is that the latest Voteview rankings only had 434 spots because of ties, so Flake was the second-most conservative at 433, while Shadegg was the third-most conservative at 432. The most conservative spot was held, as it has been for the past several years, by presidential candidate Ron Paul, R-Texas.

Poole told me the rankings are based on an optimal classification algorithm, which I suppose means something to people who know what that means. “It’s one of those things where the reason why it’s not out there more in the mass press … is our method is based upon statistical basis that are not real easy to explain, but are far more precise than all those other ways to measure,” he said.

I’ll take his word for it.

Anyway, Fortier’s piece is available here: www.aei.org/publications/filter.all,publD.27087/pub_detail.asp

The Voteview rankings and more background on the researchers’ optimal classification algorithm are available here: www.voteview.com

Mitt Romney

Jeff Flake

A reader named Mark asked a reasonable question concerning my story today about the sabotage of an online poll about the potential Jeff Flake-Russel Pearce congressional race. The story was headlined “Results are in; online poll doesn’t add up.”

The story can be accessed here: http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/story/97050

Question: “I fail to see how this is even remotely newsworthy. Covering online polls?? If you were to believe some of these so-called online polls, Ron Paul would be a shoo-in for president. Janet Napolitano would have had no chance at getting reelected last year, and Sen. Jon Kyl is in real danger of being recalled. A poll from GOPUSA?? Come on!”

Answer: Mark is correct in that online polls are garbage. That was explained by legitimate pollster Mike O’Neil within today’s story. Heck, the results of the online poll weren’t even included in the story.

But the story really wasn’t about the GOP news site poll. It was about how Pearce and someone apparently aligned with Flake tampered with it.

Pearce admitted to me that he sent an e-mail to supporters telling them how to manipulate the poll to favor him. Then three hours later, he said, he sent another e-mail asking his supporters to ignore the poll. Meanwhile, Flake’s spokesmen Matthew Specht and Mike Haller told me they encouraged Flake’s supporters to vote in the poll, but they denied knowledge of who hacked it to favor Flake.

Integrity and honesty are going to be key themes of a potential Flake-Pearce race. Pearce challenged Flake on those points when he announced that he was forming an exploratory committee as he considers running. Specifically, he said Flake has been less than honest in discussing immigration. Those are strong words for the opening interview of a congressional race.

That’s what makes the story newsworthy. Thanks for asking.

Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul is slated to make two public appearances in the Valley today.The U.S. representative from Texas is scheduled to be the guest of honor at a rally the moment he steps off a US Airways flight from Austin at Terminal 4 at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport around 9:15 a.m.His supporters will have to be nible, because as of Friday evening, the plane’s arrival gate had yet to be announced. Supporters thought probably would arrive at a gate on the A Concourse. Or maybe the B Concourse. Wherever the rally ends up, it’s free.More information may be available at www.ronpaul2008.com.The candidate, whom supporters call the

This question was submitted by phone this morning.

Question: Why wasn’t Republican Ron Paul included in the East Valley Tribune’s story today about the Rocky Mountain Poll on presidential candidates?

Answer: Paul, a U.S. representative from Texas, didn’t make the paper because Behavior Research Center, the Phoenix-based firm that conducted the survey, didn’t include him in its research.

Survey director Earl de Berge said the surveys feature the candidates he concludes are the most serious contenders. Alas, Paul didn’t meet his qualifications. The lists are works in progress, de Berge said. For instance, he dropped Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and added former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee for the May survey.

De Berge said he’ll reconsider whether to add Paul before the next Rocky Mountain Poll.

Got a question? Post it in the “Add a comment” section below or e-mail it to pgiblin@evtrib.com.