Ron Paul

Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul has surged to a devastating lead in Arizona, far outdistancing John McCain and all other challengers, just three weeks before the state’s presidential preference election, according to a straw poll of GOP yuppies conducted in a Scottsdale bar during happy Thursday night.

Seasoned political analysts associated with the Republican Professional Club noted their straw poll was something less than perfectly scientific – and only partly because they sold the 515 ballots used in the poll for $5 each.

Nonetheless, here are the, ahem, official results:

– Ron Paul, 80 percent.

– John McCain, 12 percent.

– Mitt Romney, 3 percent.

– Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson and blank ballots, 1 percent each.

– Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter and two people whose driver’s licences reveal them to be Charles Jensen and John Galt, 0.5 percent each. 

The only definitive aspect of the pay-per-skew poll is that it raised $2,575 for the club. 

John McCain (right) and a few of his friends

A Republican insider suggested a new drinking game involving televised presidential debates. OK, the rules are still evolving, but here’s the working model so far…

You and your friends settle down in front of the tube to watch the next Republican debate. Everyone picks a candidate.

If your candidate is John McCain, every time he says “my friends,” you gulp some beer.

If your candidate is Mitt Romney, every time he mentions “Olympics,” you take a slug.

If your candidate is Rudy Giuliani, every time he utters “9/11,” drink away.

The Republican insider hasn’t yet determined the drinking cues for Mike Huckabee, Fred Thompson or Ron Paul yet. Give him time…

On the Democratic side…

If your candidate is Hillary Clinton, when she says “experience,” you gulp.

If your candidate is Barack Obama, when he says some version of “make history,” you make your beer history.

The cues for John Edwards, and well, whoever else is still left on the Dem side, haven’t been finalized.

Any viewer who hasn’t passed out before the end of the program declares himself or herself the winner. Congratulations.

Initially, the Republican insider who brainstormed this idea suggested Obama’s cue ought to be the word “change,” but I had to veto that idea on the basis that it would cause alcoholism.

Mitt Romney and Joe Arpaio

Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio traveled to New Hampshire to stump for Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney during the weekend.

Arpaio, who has made national headlines for arresting illegal immigrants, appeared with U.S. Rep. Tom Tancredo, a Republican from Colorado, at a press conference in Manchester to discuss illegal immigration.

Here’s some of Arpaio’s quotage, as provided by Romney’s campaign:

“I like (Romney’) stance on illegal immigration. If you recall, he’s probably the first governor that did make arrangements with (the U.S. Immigrations and Customs Enforcement service) for that type of training that ICE and we do. I give him a lot of credit for that.”

“It is an important problem in the state of Arizona and the whole country. That’s one reason I support the governor, versus many other reasons, too. Unfortunately, we have a U.S. senator from that important state that doesn’t give much emphasis to this most important issue.”

As governor of Massachusetts, Romney signed an agreement with ICE that allowed Massachusetts state troopers training and authority to enforce immigration law.

I’m not sure exactly what Arpaio meant by suggesting that Sen. John McCain doesn’t give much emphasis to illegal immigration. McCain co-sponsored the last two immigration reform packages that got any traction at all. Of course, both failed. And, in fact, it has been McCain’s unflinching attention to immigration policy that his given his campaign the most difficulty within his own party.

Curiously, Romney’s current immigration plan has more similarities than dissimilarities to the Senate’s compromise plan that McCain pushed in the summer. Here’s Romney’s 11-point plan, as outlined in the same press release:

– Secure the border. (Part of the 2007 Senate plan.)

– Implement a mandatory and enforceable employment verification system. (Part of the Senate plan.)

– Hold employers accountable. (Part of the Senate plan.)

– Reject amnesty. According to Romney, that means “oppose … any special path to citizenship for those here illegally.” (That might be a difference, but maybe not. The Senate plan contained a “path to citizenship” that included illegal immigrants paying fines, paying back taxes, proving steady employment, undergoing a background check and learning English, among other requirements. McCain, and others, said that was not amnesty. It’s difficult to determine how different Romney’s intended treatment of illegal immigrants differs from McCain’s proposed treatment, because Romney didn’t offer any details about what he would do with an estimated 12 million illegal immigrants already living in the United States.)

– End the magnet of “sanctuary cities.” (The Senate plan was silent on this.)

– Oppose any special benefits for illegal immigrants. Romney defines this as driver’s licenses and in-state tuition for illegal immigrants. (The Senate plan was silent on this.)

– Promote state and local partnerships with federal immigration officials. (Part of the Senate plan.)

– Improve interior enforcement. (Part of the Senate plan.)

– Teach English in our schools. (The Senate plan was silent on this.)

– End chain migration. (Part of the Senate plan.)

– Encourage legal immigration. (Part of the Senate plan.)

So in summery, of Romney’s 11 points, seven were featured in the Senate immigration bill, three weren’t addressed one way or the other, and the final point is tough to determine without more details from Romney.

It’s important to note that since the Senate immigration bill failed during the summer, McCain has said he now favors an enforcement-first approach.

Also, national Republican and Democrat decision makers alike have told me that immigration very likely will be a dead issue until after the next president is sworn in, and perhaps even until the next president is sworn in for a second term.

Jim Sharpe

We return now to the topic of media’s alleged political bias…

The PR firm that is handling presidential candidate Mitt Romney’s campaign announced Sunday that it hired local newsman Jim Sharpe to replace departed former local newsman Robbie Sherwood.

Sherwood, a former reporter for the East Valley Tribune and Arizona Republic, left Rose & Allyn Public Relations a few weeks ago after about a year at the Scottsdale-based PR firm to become district director for U.S. Rep. Harry Mitchell, D-Ariz.

Sharpe, according to the never-subtle Jason Rose, is a “killer radio news personality.” Sharpe is an award-winning reporter and talk show host who most recently was on KFYI-550 AM. He also worked for KTAR-620 AM in Phoenix, plus at stations in Los Angeles and Dallas.

So figure that one out…

A former radio newsman is joining a PR firm that’s handling Republican Romney’s campaign to replace a former newspaper guy who left the PR firm for a job with Democrat Mitchell. And both previously worked in the media. Something must be amiss!

That is, of course, if you buy into the whole media bias conspiracy business…

Ron Paul and Rudy Giuliani

Aides for presidential candidates Rudy Giuliani and Ron Paul filed the necessary paperwork at the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office on Friday to be included in
Arizona’s presidential preference election on Feb. 5.

To date, the list features eight Republicans and seven Democrats. Both sides include several mystery candidates.

The Republicans: Known candidates Giuliani, Paul, Duncan Hunter and Mitt Romney, plus people named John Fitzpatrick, Daniel Gilbert, John McGratch and Jack Shepard.

The Democrats: Known candidates Christopher Dodd, John Edwards and Mike Gravel, plus people named Frank Lynch, Leland Montell, Philip Tanner and Evelyn Vitullo.

Secretary of State’s Office spokesman Kevin Tyne noted that according to Arizona law, prospective candidates need only be U.S. citizens to appear on the ballot. “As in year’s past, we have citizens who know that and just get their names on the list,” Tyne said. “They don’t necessarily have campaign committees or are nationally involved.”

According to Shepard’s candidacy paperwork, he lives in Rome – yes,
Rome, Italy.

The Secretary of State’s Office will continue to collect paperwork from presidential candidates until 5 p.m., Dec. 17. State officials will draw lots for the order in which the names appear on the ballot at 10 a.m., Dec. 18.

Fred Thompson

Republican presidential candidate Fred Thompson had some fun Thursday when reporters in
Phoenix asked him about the strategy behind a TV commercial that was broadcast during the CNN/YouTube debate on Wednesday.

“Oh, it’s a very secret strategy. I can’t let you in on it,” he said during a brief press conference after speaking at two fundraisers.

All the candidates who participated in the debate were permitted to submit YouTube-style videos to be broadcast during the program. All but Thompson submitted videos that focused on their own achievements and qualifications.

Thompson’s spot instead showed old clips of Mitt Romney defending abortion rights and Mike Huckabee saying tax increases were fine with him. Alas, now Romney is opposed to abortion, and Huckabee is against tax raises.

Thompson said his ad took a legitimate look at his rivals’ evolving position on important issues. “The question is: Do you look at their record for several years or do you look at what they’re saying now, in order to determine what they’re going to do in the future?” Thompson said.

The answer was not provided during the press conference. On another topic, a reporter also asked Thompson if he expected to win Arizona’s GOP presidential preference election on Feb. 5.

“Ah, yes,” he replied without elaborating.

Pulling that off will require plenty of secret strategy work. A poll released by Behavior Research Center earlier this month had Thompson running in fourth place among the GOP presidential candidates in Arizona. The survey had Rudy Giuliani first with 20 percent support among self-identified Republican heads of households. Arizona Sen. John McCain was second at 18 percent, while Romney was third at 11 percent. Thompson was next at 10 percent.

My full story on Thompson’s first campaign visit to Arizona is available here: Posted in Fred Thompson, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giulani, Surveys, polls and guesses, VIPs in AZ | 1 Comment »