Harry Mitchell, No. 221½.

Democrat Reps. Harry Mitchell and Gabrielle Giffords have established themselves as true moderates during their first six months in the U.S. House, according to an op-ed piece headlined “For Freshmen, Fresh Voting,” by John Fortier, a research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank.

In fact, Fortier writes that he was surprised to find that most of the freshman Democrats in the House are voting on the conservative side of their party. “None of the 30 Democrats who replaced Republicans are among the most liberal 20 percent of Congress,” Fortier writes.

Fortier bases his findings on Voteview, a statistical rating compiled by political scientists Keith Poole and Howard Rosenthal, who have been in the congressional ranking business for decades. Their latest rankings are based on the House members’ voting records during the first six months of 2007.

Fortier compares the new Democrats’ voting records against their Republican predecessors’ records. “Among the biggest changes, J.D. Hayworth, R-Ariz., and Chris Chocola, R-Ind., who had voting records among the 10 percent most conservatives, have been replaced by Harry Mitchell, D, and Joe Donnelly, D, respectively, who rank almost exactly in the middle of the 110^th Congress,” Fortier writes.

A little background is in order here. Voteview ranks all 435 members of the House each session, though Poole told me the rankings frequently include more than 435 spots to account for representatives who serve part of their terms, leave office and are replaced by others.

The most liberal representative is assigned the rank of 1. The most conservative representative is assigned the rank of 435, or higher if circumstances dictate. Using that scale, here’s how the
Arizona delegation ranked during the first half of 2007:

Raul Grijalva, Democrat, tied with four others for 26½.

Ed Pastor, Democrat, tied with nine others for 77½.

Gabrielle Giffords, Democrat, 219.

Harry Mitchell, Democrat, tied with one other for 221½.

Rick Renzi, Republican, 261.

Trent Franks, Republican, 426.

John Shadegg, Republican, 432.

Jeff Flake, Republican, 433.

Statistically, the middle of the pack is 217½, so both Giffords and Mitchell fell into the conservative half of both the Democrats and the entire House. Another interesting note is that the latest Voteview rankings only had 434 spots because of ties, so Flake was the second-most conservative at 433, while Shadegg was the third-most conservative at 432. The most conservative spot was held, as it has been for the past several years, by presidential candidate Ron Paul, R-Texas.

Poole told me the rankings are based on an optimal classification algorithm, which I suppose means something to people who know what that means. “It’s one of those things where the reason why it’s not out there more in the mass press … is our method is based upon statistical basis that are not real easy to explain, but are far more precise than all those other ways to measure,” he said.

I’ll take his word for it.

Anyway, Fortier’s piece is available here: www.aei.org/publications/filter.all,publD.27087/pub_detail.asp

The Voteview rankings and more background on the researchers’ optimal classification algorithm are available here: www.voteview.com

John Shadegg

This week’s example of shameless political opportunism is brought to you by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, an organization that exists solely to get Democrats elected to the U.S. House. Or at least that was its mission until Tuesday. The DCCC launched a week-long radio advertising campaign in Arizona on Tuesday targeting Republican Rep. John Shadegg for opposing SCHIP legislation.

SCHIP is the State Children’s Health Insurance Program, a national program intended to provide health insurance for families who earn too much money to qualify for Medicaid, but not enough to pay for private insurance.

The DCCC targeted Shadegg and seven other Republicans in the fourth round of its multi-media radio, e-mail and text-message ad campaign. The radio ads say, “Did you know Congressman Shadegg gets health care at taxpayers’ expense, but Shadegg and Bush are blocking health care for 10 million uninsured children? Tell John Shadegg to put kids first.”

DCCC spokesman Doug Thornell told me that the campaign is intended coax Shadegg into flipping his position. “He’s been one of the remaining Republicans who’s been helping Bush sustain his veto. And we’ve said for several weeks now that we plan to hold Republicans accountable who vote to support George Bush’s veto over healthcare for children. And Shadegg has been one of the president’s most consistent supporters on this,” he said. Well, so much for that idea.Six hours after the DCCC issued a press release about the ad campaign Monday, Shadegg issued his own press release defending his position and trashing the DCCC.“I am thrilled that Washington, D.C., Democrats are going to waste their money attacking me in Arizona and particularly pleased that they have chosen the SCHIP issue,” Shadegg said in the release.

Bill Clinton and Jim Pederson

It’s payback time for former U.S. Senate candidate Jim Pederson. The shopping center developer and several members of his family each have donated $2,300 to the presidential campaigns of Democrats Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

“They both helped me out considerably in my Senate race, so I owe them both,” Pederson told me.

Hillary Clinton hosted a fundraiser for Pederson in Washington, D.C., and former President Bill Clinton campaigned for Pederson in Arizona during his 2006 campaign against Republican incumbent Jon Kyl. Obama also appeared at a rally for Pederson and other Democrats.

Pederson said, “Gosh, I’ll never forget, on Election Day last year, I was out working one of the polling lines and one of our people came up and said, ‘Bill Clinton is on the phone with a talk-show radio host in Tucson promoting our campaign!’ I said, ‘You’re kidding. How can we tap into that?’ He said, ‘Well, I don’t know.’ Then five minutes later, he said, ‘Bill Clinton is on KTAR up here!’ Unsolicited, he went out and called up every talk show on radio in Arizona on Election Day promoting our campaign.”

He said, “And Barack coming out here and helping me out, those are the kind of favors that really mean a lot. And so, you know, I have an allegiance to both of them.”

In the world of politics, that means writing checks. Pederson also has been raising money for Reps. Harry Mitchell and Gabrielle Giffords for their 2008 re-election campaigns, but he has no plans to run for public office himself – at least this time around.

“There’s not too much happening on a statewide basis next year, but 2010 is going to be a big year. We’ll see what happens,” he said.

In 2010, Republican Sen. John McCain will be up for re-election to the Senate if he doesn’t win the presidency first. If McCain wins the White House, his Senate successor will have to stand for re-election anyway. Then depending on circumstances, Republican Rep. John Shadegg may have an interest in the Senate, which would open his House seat, if Shadegg gets past his own 2006 House re-election. And who knows who will be running for re-election in the seat now held by Republican Rep. Rick Renzi? Plus, the governor’s seat will be open in 2010.

Randy PullenArizona Republican Party chairman Randy Pullen, who has made a habit in recent weeks of criticizing Republicans, found a Democratic target Tuesday

Rep. Jeff Flake of Arizona and presidential candidate John Edwards of North Carolina have some of the best hair in Washington. But there is an important difference between their haircuts. See if you can spot it. Here

President Bush