Harry Mitchell (front row, third from left) and Gabrielle Giffords (front row, fourth from left)

Democrat U.S. Rep. Harry Mitchell said he’s comfortable with being labeled by National Journal magazine as one of the key players in the “The New Center” movement within the U.S. House.

The March 8 edition of the magazine bases the observation on its latest annual analysis of congressional votes. National Journal slotted Mitchell 13 spots left of center among 429 members of the House. The magazine didn’t rank the remaining members of the House because of missed votes.

Based on 100-point scale that measures the political ideological spectrum, Mitchell is 39 points more liberal than his predecessor, ousted Republican J.D. Hayworth, who received a 85 percent conservative rating the previous year, according to the magazine.

Similarly, fellow freshman Arizona Democrat Gabrielle Giffords came in 22.5 points more liberal than her predecessor, retired Republican Jim Kolbe, who garnered a 65.7 percent conservative rating.

In fact, the House’s center is filled disproportionately with freshmen Democrats, according to the magazine.

The rankings seem accurate, Mitchell said. “It shows that – and I really believe this, too – the Democrat first-termers really are the middle of the road, the center. And most of them came from Republican districts, like myself,” he said.

Mitchell never exactly sought out the political center; it just worked out that way, he said. “I thought I represented my district. I voted with my district and that’s where it put me,” he said.

For example, Mitchell was one of six freshman Democrats to break with party leadership to oppose the Democratic budget resolution. Mitchell couldn’t support it because, in part, it failed to address an increase in government spending. He also co-sponsored a bill with Rep. Christopher Shays, R-Conn., to extend President Bush’s cuts on capital gains taxes and estate taxes. 

While the magazine suggests the “majority makers” have a fair amount of clout within the House in general and the Democratic Party in particular, it doesn’t always feel that way, Mitchell said. He’s familiar with the so-called majority makers, but they certainly don’t act as a coalition by planning strategy together or deliberately voting together. 

“A lot of these people, I do talk to on the floor, just casually most of them,” he said. “I probably talk more to Gabby, because I served in the (Arizona) Senate with her.” 

Also, there’s inherent political risk associated with centralist politics, he said. “You get hit from people coming from the right and the left if you’re middle of the road. It’s like walking the double-yellow line, isn’t it?”

Harry Mitchell, No. 221½.

Democrat Reps. Harry Mitchell and Gabrielle Giffords have established themselves as true moderates during their first six months in the U.S. House, according to an op-ed piece headlined “For Freshmen, Fresh Voting,” by John Fortier, a research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank.

In fact, Fortier writes that he was surprised to find that most of the freshman Democrats in the House are voting on the conservative side of their party. “None of the 30 Democrats who replaced Republicans are among the most liberal 20 percent of Congress,” Fortier writes.

Fortier bases his findings on Voteview, a statistical rating compiled by political scientists Keith Poole and Howard Rosenthal, who have been in the congressional ranking business for decades. Their latest rankings are based on the House members’ voting records during the first six months of 2007.

Fortier compares the new Democrats’ voting records against their Republican predecessors’ records. “Among the biggest changes, J.D. Hayworth, R-Ariz., and Chris Chocola, R-Ind., who had voting records among the 10 percent most conservatives, have been replaced by Harry Mitchell, D, and Joe Donnelly, D, respectively, who rank almost exactly in the middle of the 110^th Congress,” Fortier writes.

A little background is in order here. Voteview ranks all 435 members of the House each session, though Poole told me the rankings frequently include more than 435 spots to account for representatives who serve part of their terms, leave office and are replaced by others.

The most liberal representative is assigned the rank of 1. The most conservative representative is assigned the rank of 435, or higher if circumstances dictate. Using that scale, here’s how the
Arizona delegation ranked during the first half of 2007:

Raul Grijalva, Democrat, tied with four others for 26½.

Ed Pastor, Democrat, tied with nine others for 77½.

Gabrielle Giffords, Democrat, 219.

Harry Mitchell, Democrat, tied with one other for 221½.

Rick Renzi, Republican, 261.

Trent Franks, Republican, 426.

John Shadegg, Republican, 432.

Jeff Flake, Republican, 433.

Statistically, the middle of the pack is 217½, so both Giffords and Mitchell fell into the conservative half of both the Democrats and the entire House. Another interesting note is that the latest Voteview rankings only had 434 spots because of ties, so Flake was the second-most conservative at 433, while Shadegg was the third-most conservative at 432. The most conservative spot was held, as it has been for the past several years, by presidential candidate Ron Paul, R-Texas.

Poole told me the rankings are based on an optimal classification algorithm, which I suppose means something to people who know what that means. “It’s one of those things where the reason why it’s not out there more in the mass press … is our method is based upon statistical basis that are not real easy to explain, but are far more precise than all those other ways to measure,” he said.

I’ll take his word for it.

Anyway, Fortier’s piece is available here: www.aei.org/publications/filter.all,publD.27087/pub_detail.asp

The Voteview rankings and more background on the researchers’ optimal classification algorithm are available here: www.voteview.com

While I was discussing the coming 2008 congressional race with not-quite-official candidate David Schweikert on Thursday, he noted, as all Republicans do, that Arizona’s 5^th Congressional District ought to be a Republican stronghold.

Check out the voter-registration numbers: 43 percent Republican, 29 percent independent, 27 percent Democrat, less than 1 percent Libertarian. The mostly urban district takes in Scottsdale, Tempe, Fountain Hills, Ahwatukee Foothills and west Mesa.

Yet Democrat challenger Harry Mitchell bounced six-term Republican incumbent J.D. Hayworth last year. Schweikert said he doesn’t have a clear read on that race. “It was a really complicated election, because, I think, there were a bunch of different things in play. And I’m not sure I’m smart enough to know what they all were. It is obvious that the election became horribly negative and I think just the voracity of it turned a lot of people off.”

The next batch of candidates might consider taking a different approach along the campaign trail, specifically an approach that would appeal to highly educated and financially successful voters in the 5th District, he said.

“Can you actually have a race these days where you actually say, ‘I’m on this side; here’s my solution. Here’s this person’s solution. Does this make sense? You choose.’ Or do you immediately have to go in there and take shots at each other? I’d love to avoid that,” Schweikert said.

For the moment, Schweikert serves as the Maricopa County treasurer. He turned in his resignation Wednesday and his final day in the county job is Monday. He will formally announce his candidacy for Congress after that. The full story can be accessed here: Posted in CD 5 race, David Schweikert, Harry Mitchell, J.D. Hayworth | Comments Off