Happy donkeys

The total number of voters statewide dipped since the presidential preference election on Feb. 5, however the number of registered Democrats increased.

Overall, the number of voters dropped by less than 1 percentage point from 2.71 million voters to 2.69 million voters March 1, according to the Secretary of State’s office.

“The decrease in the voter registration totals really reflect continuing voter roll clean-up efforts by county recorders,” Secretary of State Jan Brewer said in a statement.

The party-by-party details tell a different story though.

The number of Republicans fell less than 1 percentage point from 1.04 million voters to 1.03 million.

The number of Democrats increased just more than 1 percentage point from 905,000 voters to 916,000.

The number of Libertarians dwindled by 4 percentage points from 17,700 voters to 16,900.

And the number of independents dropped by 3 percentage points from 748,000 voters to 725,000.

Those types of numbers underscore why Democrats insist Arizona is becoming increasingly competitive.

In pure numbers, Republicans still outnumber Democrats by 121,000 voters. However, the Dems gained 11,200 voters during the last reporting period, while the GOP lost 5,500 voters. That means the Democrats narrowed the gap by 16,700 voters in a single reporting period.

It’s like an SAT question: If a donkey and an elephant facing the same direction start 121 miles apart and the donkey trots 11.2 mph forwards and elephant lumbers 5.5 mph backwards, how long will it take for the donkey to overtake the elephant?

Of course past results don’t guarantee future performance, but if those trends to continue unchanged, the Democratic Party will become the majority party in Arizona in about spring 2010, which would be just in time for a Janet Napolitano-John Shadegg U.S. Senate race.

And in the meantime, state Democratic Party officials contend that independents break about 2-1 toward Democratic candidates.

Another interesting point is the number of independents decreased. Until late last year, the number of new independent voters joining the state’s voter roles was greater rate than number of new Democrats and Republicans combined. Even last year though, Democrats were registering more new voters than Republicans.

The next couple of voter registration reports, which will reflect the parties’ efforts to register new voters before the fall primary and general elections, should provide greater insight into whether the current numbers are just quirky blips of statistics, or early indications of a dramatic shift in Arizona politics. 

Actress Kate Walsh

TV hottie Kate Walsh and Gov. Janet Napolitano are set to appear together to talk up Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama at Arizona State University at 11:45 a.m. today, Wednesday, Jan. 23.

Walsh, who stars as Dr. Addison Montgomery in “Grey’s Anatomy” and “Private Practice,” apparently has a bit of time to burn as the Hollywood writers’ strike lingers on. She’s scheduled to make several campaign stops around the state for Obama. 

She grew up partly in Tucson where she attended Catalina High School. She later attended the University of Arizona. If she really wants to help Obama, she probably ought to gloss over that little UA aspect of her bio while she’s stumping at ASU.

She also appears in Cadillac commercials to purr the line, “When you turn your car on, does it return the favor?” Let’s see if she can work that line into a campaign speech for Obama. 

The event is set for the ASU Memorial Union Stage, 1290 S. Normal Ave., in Tempe.

Napolitano also has been doing a bit of campaigning for Obama. She appeared in Nevada before that state’s Jan. 19 primary election. Obama finished second to Hillary Clinton there. 

Arizona’s presidential primary election is Feb. 5.

National Republican Committee spokesman Paul Lindsay offered this observation about the event, “
Hollywood stars and establishment Democrats like Janet Napolitano cannot mask Barack Obama’s paper thin record of accomplishment.  Aside from his lofty political rhetoric, Obama has given voters in
Arizona little reason to be convinced that he is qualified to serve as our nation’s commander-in-chief.” 

Well, that settles that. Obama definitely does not turn on Lindsay.

Bill Clinton and Jim Pederson in 2006

Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign announced the formation of a state steering committee, a panel of nearly 50 political, business and community leaders on Wednesday.

State campaign co-chairwoman Mary Rose Wilcox also said the campaign will open a Tucson office this week. Clinton already has an office in Phoenix. She said the campaign also is expanding its door-to-door campaign and phone banking operations.

The state’s presidential preference election is Feb. 5, one 22 states that will conduct their elections or caucuses on the day that has been dubbed Super Duper Tuesday.

Clinton steering committee member Jim Pederson said, “We’ve got a lot of work to do in terms of our direct mail and our phones. Hopefully, we’ll have a slice of TV coming in here.”

Pederson, a shopping center developer, ran an unsuccessful campaign against Republican incumbent Sen. Jon Kyl in 2006. Bill Clinton made two appearances in Arizona to support Pederson’s bid.

Wilcox, a Maricopa County Supervisor, said she expects Hillary Clinton to campaign in Arizona sometime later this month.

She said the campaign got a boost last week when Gov. Janet Napolitano endorsed Hillary Clinton’s opponent Barack Obama last week. “It’s energized our campaign. I think people were so surprised. Now we’re getting people coming in saying, ‘I’m coming in because I want her to win. The governor supported somebody else, but I’m supporting her because I want her to win.’”

Fellow steering committee member and state Rep. Robert Meza said Clinton campaign leaders will be happy to welcome Napolitano aboard as soon as Clinton secures the Democratic nomination.

For more about Clinton’s and Obama’s efforts in Arizona, check out a longer article I wrote for the Tribune a few days ago.