John McCain’s fate swings with idependents in Arizona
May 22nd, 2008, 4:12 pm · Post a Comment · posted by Paul Giblin
John McCain
Presidential candidate John McCain leads opponents Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in hypothetical head-to-head contests among Arizona voters, according to a Rocky Mountain Poll released today, Thursday, May 22.
In a McCain-Obama match-up, the Republican senator from Arizona has an 11-percentage point edge against the Democratic senator from Illinois. The results: McCain 50 percent, Obama 39 percent, and undecided 11 percent.
In a McCain-Clinton election, McCain has an even greater 15-percentage point advantage against the Democratic senator from New York. The specifics: McCain 51 percent, Clinton 36 percent, undecided 11 percent, and someone else 1 percent.
Survey director Earl de Berge noted that the election is shaping up to be intensely partisan with 84 percent or more Republicans siding with McCain against either Democratic challenger; and conversely, 70 percent or more Democrats close ranks and align with either Obama or Clinton against the presumptive GOP nominee.
“It appears that much of the GOP hope that Democrats will remain divided after the nomination process is over may be wishful thinking on their part,” de Berge wrote in an analysis.
The real campaign in Arizona will be for the votes of registered independents. McCain polls slightly ahead of the Democrats among independents, with a 2-percentage point advantage against Obama and a 3-percentage point lead against Clinton.
However, independents comprise a disproportionately large segment of the undecided voters. A full 16 percent of independents have yet to decide in a McCain-Obama race, while an even greater 23 percent have to make a choice in a McCain-Clinton race.\
The survey of 630 registered voters was conducted by Phoenix-based Behavior Research Center, a nonpartisan polling firm, from May 12 through 20. It had a margin of error of 4 percentage points, according to the pollsters.
