John McCain trumps Democrats in Arizona survey
April 30th, 2008, 10:37 am · Post a Comment · posted by Paul Giblin
John McCain
Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain would beat either of his Democratic opponents by fair margins in his home state, according to a statewide survey released Tuesday, April 29.
In a hypothetical head-to-head race against Sen. Barack Obama, the results were: McCain 47 percent, Obama 38 percent, and undecided 15 percent, according the poll conducted by Arizona State University/KAET-TV (Channel 8). That gives the home-state candidate a 9 percentage point edge.
In a head-to-head contest with Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, the results were: McCain 53 percent, Clinton 37 percent, and undecided 10 percent. That gives McCain an even more comfortable advantage of 16 percentage points.
The survey-takers probed further and identified the top reasons the respondents sided with their candidate. A sizable portion of the electorate apparently plans to vote against a particular candidate, rather than vote for a candidate.
For example, in the McCain-Obama race, the top three reasons voters said they were supporting McCain were: 1) They don’t like Obama, which turned up 22 percent of the time; 2) They always vote for the Republican candidate, at 20 percent; and, 3) McCain’s experience, 15 percent.
In the same McCain-Obama match-up, the top reasons respondents cited for favoring Obama were: 1) They always vote for the Democratic, which was important for 37 percent; 2) Obama’s message for hope and change, 16 percent; and, 3) They don’t like McCain, 14 percent.
In a McCain-Clinton race, the top reasons for supporting McCain were: 1) They don’t like Clinton, 45 percent; 2) They vote Republican, 18 percent; and, 3) They don’t like Bill Clinton and don’t want another Clinton in the White House, 8 percent.
Also in a McCain-Clinton race, the top reasons respondents told pollsters they selected Clinton were: 1) They vote Democrat, 31 percent; 2) Clinton will change President Bush’s policies and supporting working people, 15 percent; and tied for, 3) Clinton’s against the war in Iraq, and they like her stands on the issues, at 10 percent each.
Poll director Bruce Merrill said there are two reasons Obama did better than Clinton in the head-on-head contests with McCain.
“First, those who identify themselves as political independents divide their vote almost equally between Obama and McCain. Many independents are strongly opposed to the war in Iraq and they tend to oppose (McCain) on that issue,” Merrill said in a prepared statement.
“The second reason Obama does better than Clinton is that Arizonans simply have a strong dislike for Hillary Clinton, even though her husband won the state when he ran for reelection,” he said.
Well, some Arizonans have a strong dislike for her. Clinton beat Obama in Arizona’s Democratic presidential preference election 50.4 percent to 42.4 on Feb. 5, so she has her in-state support group as well.
Interestingly, age, gender and race appear to be only minor considerations for most voters, according to the survey. Or, perhaps, few people admit to pollsters that those factors are important to them.
Either way, among Obama supporters, just 4 percent said they supported him because he’s younger than McCain; while among Clinton supporters, the age issue didn’t register at all. Among McCain supporters, 3 percent said they supported him because he’s older than Obama. McCain supporters didn’t mention age when he was matched up against Clinton.
Regarding gender, 5 percent of Clinton’s followers cited her gender as their top reason to support her; while among McCain supporters, 2 percent cited Clinton’s gender as a reason to vote against her.
Race didn’t show up as a factor in any of the potential match-ups. The independent survey of 577 registered voters statewide was conducted between April 24 and 47. It has a margin of error of 4.0 percentage points, according to the pollsters.
