Darrell Ankarlo

Talk radio talker Darrell Ankarlo and Republican U.S. House candidate Laura Knaperek are slated as the featured speakers at the inaugural GOPallooza, a Republican networking event Thursday, May 1.

Ankarlo commands a microphone from 8:30 a.m. to noon weekdays on KTAR-FM 92.3.

Knaperek is one of several Republicans trying to unseat Democrat Rep. Harry Mitchell in Arizona’s 5th Congressional District, which takes in Scottsdale, Tempe, Fountain Hills, Ahwatukee Foothills and west Mesa. While serving in the state Legislature for a decade, Knaperek focused on education reform and children’s issues.

GOPallooza, which is the best-named networking event in recent memory, is set for 6 p.m. at Six Lounge and Restaurant, 7316 E. Stetson Drive, in Scottsdale. The event is hosted by the Republican Professionals club. It’s free and open to the public, though a club executives recommend RSVPs.

“The idea behind GOPallooza is to celebrate the outstanding success of (Republican Club’s) free networking events thus far while setting an exciting new ton for the months ahead,” said club president Charles Jensen in a press release.

The club’s first monthly networking event was in October. For information, contact Jensen at (602) 403-5535 or  charles at republicanprofessions.org. 

John McCain

Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain would beat either of his Democratic opponents by fair margins in his home state, according to a statewide survey released Tuesday, April 29.

In a hypothetical head-to-head race against Sen. Barack Obama, the results were: McCain 47 percent, Obama 38 percent, and undecided 15 percent, according the poll conducted by Arizona State University/KAET-TV (Channel 8). That gives the home-state candidate a 9 percentage point edge.

In a head-to-head contest with Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, the results were: McCain 53 percent, Clinton 37 percent, and undecided 10 percent. That gives McCain an even more comfortable advantage of 16 percentage points.

The survey-takers probed further and identified the top reasons the respondents sided with their candidate. A sizable portion of the electorate apparently plans to vote against a particular candidate, rather than vote for a candidate.

For example, in the McCain-Obama race, the top three reasons voters said they were supporting McCain were: 1) They don’t like Obama, which turned up 22 percent of the time; 2) They always vote for the Republican candidate, at 20 percent; and, 3) McCain’s experience, 15 percent.

In the same McCain-Obama match-up, the top reasons respondents cited for favoring Obama were: 1) They always vote for the Democratic, which was important for 37 percent; 2) Obama’s message for hope and change, 16 percent; and, 3) They don’t like McCain, 14 percent.

In a McCain-Clinton race, the top reasons for supporting McCain were: 1) They don’t like Clinton, 45 percent; 2) They vote Republican, 18 percent; and, 3) They don’t like Bill Clinton and don’t want another Clinton in the White House, 8 percent.

Also in a McCain-Clinton race, the top reasons respondents told pollsters they selected Clinton were: 1) They vote Democrat, 31 percent; 2) Clinton will change President Bush’s policies and supporting working people, 15 percent; and tied for, 3) Clinton’s against the war in Iraq, and they like her stands on the issues, at 10 percent each.

Poll director Bruce Merrill said there are two reasons Obama did better than Clinton in the head-on-head contests with McCain.

“First, those who identify themselves as political independents divide their vote almost equally between Obama and McCain. Many independents are strongly opposed to the war in Iraq and they tend to oppose (McCain) on that issue,” Merrill said in a prepared statement.

“The second reason Obama does better than Clinton is that Arizonans simply have a strong dislike for Hillary Clinton, even though her husband won the state when he ran for reelection,” he said.

Well, some Arizonans have a strong dislike for her. Clinton beat Obama in Arizona’s Democratic presidential preference election 50.4 percent to 42.4 on Feb. 5, so she has her in-state support group as well.

Interestingly, age, gender and race appear to be only minor considerations for most voters, according to the survey. Or, perhaps, few people admit to pollsters that those factors are important to them.

Either way, among Obama supporters, just 4 percent said they supported him because he’s younger than McCain; while among Clinton supporters, the age issue didn’t register at all. Among McCain supporters, 3 percent said they supported him because he’s older than Obama. McCain supporters didn’t mention age when he was matched up against Clinton.

Regarding gender, 5 percent of Clinton’s followers cited her gender as their top reason to support her; while among McCain supporters, 2 percent cited Clinton’s gender as a reason to vote against her.

Race didn’t show up as a factor in any of the potential match-ups. The independent survey of 577 registered voters statewide was conducted between April 24 and 47. It has a margin of error of 4.0 percentage points, according to the pollsters.  

Elaine Chao

U.S. Secretary of Labor Elaine Chao will serve as the keynote speaker for Arizona’s Manufacturer of the Year Awards luncheon next month.

The event showcases “Arizona’s manufacturing community and the contributions its members make to the state both economically and socially,” according to the Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

The luncheon is set for 11:30 a.m., May 20, at the Scottsdale Plaza Resort, 7200 N. Scottsdale Road, in Scottsdale. Tickets are $150 for members and $175 for non-members. Information is available at (480) 634-3898.

Two of the Republican candidates seeking Democrat Harry Mitchell’s seat in the U.S. House are running largely self-funded campaigns.

Former Maricopa County treasurer David Schweikert has raised $681,000, but Schweikert himself contributed $272,000 of that total, according to figures compiled by The Center for Responsive Politics.

Meanwhile, former lobbyist Jim Ogsbury has raised $427,000, but he has chipped in $250,000 of that total.

OK. Now flash back to 2006 when Democratic challenger and shopping mall developer Jim Pederson self-funded most of his unsuccessful campaign against Republican Jon Kyl for the U.S. Senate. The Democrats like to explain that Pederson’s self-funded campaign proved that he couldn’t be bought. Republicans countered that it showed that he couldn’t muster any support.

This year, the opposite is happening – the Republican challengers are self-funding their campaigns. So does that mean Democrats believe Schweikert and Ogsbury are men of such integrity that they can’t be bought? Do Republicans accept the notion that Schweikert and Ogsbury simply can’t find any support?

Don’t bank on it.

In related matters, Mitchell has raised $1.4 million, but hasn’t spent a dime of his own money on the campaign. Republican Laura Knaperek, a former state representative, raised $100,000 without any self-funding. And fellow Republican Mark Anderson, a current state representative, raised $55,000, all from outside sources.

They’re vying for Arizona’s 5th Congressional District, which takes in Scottsdale, Tempe, Fountain Hills, Ahwatukee Foothills and a slice of west Mesa.

The latest national campaign finance reports underscore one of the benefits of incumbency – access to money.

In seven of the eight U.S. House races across the state, the incumbents, regardless of their parties, are far ahead of their challengers in collecting campaign contributions.

In the eighth race, Republican incumbent Rick Renzi is not running for re-election. He’s scheduled to spend the campaign season in court fighting public corruption charges instead.

Consider what’s happening in the 5^th Congressional District race.

First-term Democrat Harry Mitchell has bagged more than twice as much money as any of his Republican opponents. Mitchell had collected nearly $1.4 million and had more than $1.1 million cash on hand on at the end of the first quarter on March 31, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. And he doesn’t even a primary opponent to be concerned about.

Former Maricopa County treasurer David Schweikert was tops among the GOP field in the 1st District. He had collected $681,000 and had $514,000 cash on hand.

Former lobbyist Jim Ogsbury was next with $427,000 in receipts and $353,000 in cash.

Meanwhile, former state Rep. Laura Knaperek had raised $100,000 and had $44,000 in reserve.

State Rep. Mark Anderson had raised $55,000 and curiously had $70,000 cash on hand, according to both the Center for Responsive Politics and the Federal Election Commission. Anderson told me Friday that those figures are somewhat in error. Actually, he had raised $93,000 and had $70,000 in reserve at the end of the quarter. The $55,000 figure was just the dough he had raised during the first quarter, he said.

The top three industry sectors pumping up Mitchell’s campaign were lawyers and lobbyists with $139,000 in combined contributions; finance, insurance and real estate with $130,000 in total collections; and labor at $122,500.

The 5^th District takes in Scottsdale, Tempe, Fountain Hills, Ahwatukee Foothills and west Mesa.

Over in the 6^th District, four-term Republican incumbent Jeff Flake is running practically unopposed. He has raised $891,000 and had $975,000 cash on hand, thanks to spill-over from his previous campaign. His top three industry sectors were finance, insurance and real estate at $149,000 combined; miscellaneous businesses at $110,000; and construction interests at $54,000.

His Democratic opponent, author Richard Grayson hasn’t filed campaign finance reports.

The 6th District takes in parts of Mesa and Chandler, plus all of Gilbert, Queen Creek, and Apache Junction.

Meanwhile, in the 3^rd District, seven-term Republican incumbent John Shadegg had collected more than $1.2 million and had $938,000 in reserve.

Democrat challenger and attorney Bob Lord had raised $833,000 and had $632,000 in cash.

And independent e-magazine publisher Annie Loyd was way back with $34,000 in collections and $7,000 in reserve.

Shadegg’s top industry sectors for contributions were finance, insurance and real estate at $136,000 combined; miscellaneous businesses at $121,000; and lawyers and lobbyists at $77,000, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.

Interestingly, two of Shadegg’s top three industry sectors also were among Mitchell’s top three. Shadegg’s a Republican; Mitchell’s a Democrat. Go figure.

Shadegg’s 3rd District covers central and northern Phoenix, plus Paradise Valley, Carefree and Cave Creek.

While over in the wide-open 1^st District, which is Renzi’s district, former state Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick led the Democratic field with $661,000 in collections and $465,0000 in cash.

Next was new candidate and former U.S. House aide Jiff Riley, with $221,000 in collections and $216,000 in cash.

He was followed by former TV reporter Mary Kim Titla with $169,000 in receipts and $48,000 in cash.

Then came attorney Howard Shanker with $138,000 collected and $34,000 in reserve.

On the GOP side, Arizona Mining Association president and former talk radio host Sydney Hay led with $268,000 in collections and $222,000 in cash.

New GOP challenger and Internet businessman Preston Korn entered the fray with $19,000 raised and $10,000 in reserve.

The 1^st District is the 10^th largest district in the country. The district take in vast areas of northern, central and eastern Arizona, including the far East Valley. It stretches from the Utah state line to Casa Grande. The cost of road-side signs alone will be staggering.

Harry Mitchell

Rep. Harry Mitchell is set meet with his local veterans advisory committee Saturday to get feedback on his proposed legislation to create a new GI Bill. The measure is designed to provide military veterans with educational benefits ranging from college tuition to living stipends.

The event is not open to the public.

Mitchell introduced the Post-9/11 Veterans Educational Assistance Act last week. More than half the members of the House have since signed on as co-sponsors, according to his spokesman Seth Scott.

Under provisions of the bill, service members who have served in Iraq or Afghanistan since Sept. 11, 2001, could earn up to 36 months of college tuition, plus funds for books and housing costs. 

Mitchell, a first-term Democrat, represents Arizona’s 5th Congressional District, which takes in Scottsdale, Tempe, Fountain Hills, Ahwatukee Foothills and west Mesa.

No. 37, “I’ll be back,” The Terminator, 1984.

Political activist Scott Brannon said he wasn’t surprised to see a quick end to proposed legislation that would have given independent voters the opportunity to vote in Arizona’s presidential preference elections.

“We’re disappointed, but we’re not surprised,” said Brannon, co-chairman of the newly formed Grand Canyon Independent Voters association.

Arizona treats its presidential preference elections as closed elections – only Democrats can vote in the Democratic election, while only Republicans can vote in the Republican election. Theoretically, the same is true with the Libertarian and Green parties, though Libertarians didn’t conduct a presidential preference election in Arizona this year, and the Greens weren’t recognized as an official party until after the Feb. 5 polling date.

A bill that would have opened the presidential preference elections to independent passed the Senate, but it was gutted in the House. To use the American Film Institute’s No. 50 entry on its list most famous American movie quote, “Houston, we have a problem,” from Apollo 13, in 1995.

The Independent Voters argue that opening the system, as other states have, would give more voters the opportunity to participate in the candidate selection process.

Opponents argue that opening the system would allow for political skullduggery. They suggest that an organized group of voters from one party could cross over on Election Day and vote for the other party’s worst candidate, thereby easing the path to the White House for their own party’s top candidate.

Brannon doesn’t buy that argument, at least when it comes to registered independent, who comprise 27 percent of Arizona’s voter base.

“We understand there is some risk for foul play to sway an election, but when it comes to independents, we’re independents,” he said. That brings to mind No. 11 on the list of most famous movie quotes, “What we’ve got here is a failure to communicate,” from Cool Hand Luke, in 1967.

One way to move forward may be to allow registered independent voters to participate in any political party’s presidential preference election, but to restrict registered party members to their own parties’ elections, Brannon said. For that matter, the parties could work independently of each other. If one or two or three of the official parties allowed independents to vote in their presidential preference elections, those parties’ candidates could expect to collect a fair number of independents’ votes during general elections.

In the meantime, the Independent Voters association will push for a change to existing law.

“That’s why we organized and we’ll continue to build our coalition,” Brannon said. “We hope for a different outcome next session. We’re in for a long fight on this.”

They have time. The next presidential preference elections won’t be held until 2012, which brings to mind No. 31, “After all, tomorrow’s another day,” from Gone With the Wind, in 1939.

And if you’ve dropped into this conversation late and have no idea why it’s sprinkled with famous movie quotes, this earlier blog entry explains what’s going on.

Jon Kyl

Sen. Jon Kyl is using tax-filing day as a launching point for an anti-Democratic rip concerning the soon-to-expire 2001 and 2003 tax cuts. President Bush’s tax cuts will sunset and rates will increase unless Congress takes action to extend them. Kyl blames Democrats for inaction on that front. 

Here’s Kyl’s view on the subject, via a press release issued today by his office: 

“Tax day isn’t our favorite holiday.  And if anything makes Americans bitter, it’s seeing politicians in Washington overtax and waste their hard-earned money.   

“The Tax Foundation recently estimated that Americans will work a total of 113 days this year just to pay their federal, state and local taxes.  That is more than they work to pay for basic necessities like food, clothing, and shelter.

“Congressional Democrats seem to cling to the policy that higher taxes and more government spending is the medicine for an economy that’s getting sick.  During a time of economic uncertainty, the last thing the government should do is reach into the pockets of American families and take even more money.  But that’s precisely what will happen if the Congressional Democrats get their wish and allow the current tax rates to expire.”  Kyl is the assistant Republican leader in the Senate. 

To be fair, I’ll post an Arizona Democrat’s interpretation about how April 15 represents Republican policies, as soon as such a release arrives, which I expect will happen before the end of the day.

Kris Mayes

It’s hard to imagine, but the Republicans are all but abandoning Arizona’s 1st Congressional District to the Democrats this year.

Arizona Corporation Commissioner Kris Mayes became at least the eighth Republican to consider and reject the idea of running to succeed Republican U.S. Rep. Rick Renzi. She backed out last week.

Of course, Renzi’s pending public corruption trial isn’t doing much to bolster the Republicans’ chances.

Equally important, probable Republican candidates are finding a lack of financial support from federal sources. That’s particularly significant in the sprawling 1^st District, which is larger geographically than the state of Pennsylvania.

At the moment, Arizona Mining Association president and former talk radio host Sydney Hay is the lone Republican candidate. Former state Sen. Ken Bennett, who rejected the idea of running once before, is considering the matter anew.

A potential Mayes-Bennett-Hey primary would split whatever base the Republicans could muster. Both Mayes and Bennett are from Prescott, the epicenter of the district’s GOP network.

“We’ve seen a lot of names of prominent Republicans considering jumping in this race. They’ll float the idea for a few weeks, and then bow out,” said state Democratic Party spokeswoman Emily Bittner.

In contrast, five Democratic candidates are energized about the prospect of winning the seat, Bittner said. “They’ve felt burdened for quite some time with the service, such as it was, of Rick Renzi. I think that’s an incredibly frustrating position to be in, to see a congressman, who at this point, has been indicted on 35 counts related to corruption,” she said.

At the national level, the Democrats are sure to first spend to keep first-term U.S. Reps. Harry Mitchell and Gabrielle Giffords in office. The next on the list for federal campaign funding will be the party’s nominee in the 1^st District.

Mayes said she hopes other Republicans will enter the congressional race. “I still think this seat can be won by a Republican; that Republican isn’t going to be me this year, but I still think it’s one that leans right of center. So far, I haven’t seen any Democrats who match the profile of the district,” she said.

The state has recognized a new political party, the Green Party, as an official political party for the 2008 elections.

That brings the total number of official parties to four – the Republican Party, the Democratic Party, the Librarian Party and now, the Green Party. Together, they account for approximately 73 percent of all voters statewide. About 27 percent of voters statewide have independent status because they don’t belong to any of the official parties.

The Greens achieved official status by filing at least 20,449 voters signatures, as well as affidavits from 10 voters asking that they be recognized as Greens, according to the Secretary of State’s office. The Greens did better than required. They submitted 22,570 signatures on April 8.

As an official party, they’ll have their own primary elections on Sept. 2, and their candidates will be listed on the general election ballots on Nov. 4.

According to the Arizona Green Party’s Web site, it will adhere to the four pillars of Green parties everywhere – grassroots democracy, social justice, non-violence and ecological wisdom.