John McCain

A surge of interest in the Democratic presidential candidates will present problems for Republican John McCain across the West, according to Democratic Party leaders from Arizona and other states who spoke in a teleconference Thursday.

They pointed to numbers that indicate Democrats have been turning out for their presidential primary elections in record numbers across the region, where the political landscape is changing. In Arizona for instance, 369,000 Democrats voted on Feb. 5, which marked a 130,000-voter increase from the previous record amount.

If all of that’s true, the big blue upheaval hasn’t exactly shown up in most polls across the eight-state Mountain West region.

Deep thinkers with the polling company Rasmussen Reports classify Arizona, Utah, Wyoming, Idaho and Montana “Safe Republican” states, at least for the presidential race. They catalogue Nevada and Colorado as “Toss Up” states, and New Mexico as a “Leans Democratic” state. For those keeping score at home, that’s five reds, two purples and one blue.

The Democrats in the teleconference offer a different assessment. They said Republican voters feel betrayed by McCain.

Arizona Democratic Party executive director Maria Weeg noted that McCain failed to win the GOP primaries in Montana, Wyoming, Nevada, Utah and Colorado. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney placed first in each of those. McCain finished second in Colorado and Utah, third in Montana, and fourth in Wyoming.

“McCain’s losses around the West speak volumes. I mean, they’re really resounding. If you look at what happened in the Mountain West, McCain only won one state – and it was his home state,” Weeg said.

McCain won Arizona’s GOP presidential preference election on Feb. 5 with 48 percent of the vote. He was followed by Romney at 34 percent and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee at 9 percent.

The U.S. senator from Arizona never opened a campaign headquarters in his home and hardly campaigned in Arizona, spending the bulk of his time before the Super Tuesday elections in other states, including New York and California, both of which he won.

The presidential primaries haven’t been conducted yet in the remaining Mountain West states. Idaho’s primaries are May 27 and New Mexico’s are June 3. Here’s a guess that McCain will win both GOP races.

The Democratic leaders did not respond to a question about whether they felt the state-by-state losses of their eventual presidential candidate foretold similar difficulties for either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton in those states. For example, Clinton beat Obama in Arizona. So if Obama ends up as the Democratic nominee, which seems likely, does his second-place finish in the state’s primary in February suggest that he doesn’t have a chance in the general election in November?

Paul Lindsay, a spokesman for the Republican National Committee, faulted the Democrats’ assessment of McCain’s chances in the West.

“By ignoring every recent poll showing Sen. McCain’s strength among independents, the (Democratic National Committee) is proving that their Western strategy is as far removed from reality as their candidates’ liberal policies are removed from the values of the region’s voters,” he said in a statement.

“John McCain’s Western roots and proven record on taxes, Second Amendment rights, and protecting our national security stand in stark contrast to the flawed vision of Obama and Clinton,” Lindsay said. 

McCain’s biggest problem is within his own party, Weeg said. Republicans simply don’t trust him.

“He’s not the Straight Talk Express that he might have been when he ran for Senate the first time. He’s now what we’re referring to as the Double-Talk Express. He’s changed his stance on almost everything to pander to the most extreme portions of his party,” she said.

The Democrats said McCain has been cozy with lobbyists and AWOL from his Senate job, plus he’s weak on the economy and wrong on the war in Iraq. According to their assessment, that’s enough to tip the election toward the eventual Democratic nominee in Arizona.

“I see Arizona as winnable for a number of reasons. The first and foremost is that I don’t think McCain is that popular here. He may once have been – I don’t know – but certainly 48 percent of the vote from his own primary voters does not bode well for him,” Weeg said.

McCain’s handling of immigration has demonstrated his failure to lead, she said.

McCain and other Republican senators, notably Sen. Jon Kyl of Arizona, joined with Democrats to forge a compromise border security and immigration reform bill that failed to advance last year. Some Democrats said the bill was too strict in regulating immigration into the country, while some Republicans charged that it was too forgiving in allowing millions of illegal immigrants already living in the country to obtain citizenship.

Since the bill failed, McCain has changed his stance on the issues, going from an all-at-once approach to a two-step approach. He said he believes lawmakers should deal with the border first; and deal with immigration reform second.

Weeg said immigration will be a huge issue for Arizona voters in November.

“We work with people who come across the border. We play with them. We are next to them. We are their neighbors. So this is really an issue in Arizona,” she said. “And McCain, who once sponsored legislation to come up with some practical solutions to this increasing problem, has given in to the extremists in his party in order to garner this nomination. He’s not coming up with any real solutions at all.”

The Democrats talk about conducting a 50-state campaign. The real measure of their sincerity will be to see if Obama or Clinton runs a bona fided campaign in the 48th state.

This entry was posted on Thursday, March 27th, 2008 at 6:07 pm and is filed under Issue: Iraq, Issue: immigration, John McCain, Jon Kyl, The donkeys, The elephants, Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.