Former Maricopa County treasurer David Schweikert will launch his congressional campaign Thursday evening in Scottsdale.“I’m giving a little talk at something called the Republican Professionals organization and I figured, ‘Hey, there’s already going to be a group of people who are my friends there. Might as well do it then and make it easy,’” he said.

The Republican Professionals meet at 6 p.m., Thursday, Nov. 1, at Six Lounge & Restaurant, 7316 E. Stetson Drive in Scottsdale. Members of the group meet for happy hour on the first Thursday of each month at the same time and location. Admission is free and information is available at info@republicanprofessionals.org.

Schweikert is one of six Republicans who either already have or are expecte to enter the GOP primary in the 5th Congressional District, which takes in Scottsdale, Tempe, Fountain Hills, Ahwatukee Foothills and west Mesa. The seat is held by freshman Democrat Harry Mitchell.

Jan Brewer

Arizona voters are turning their backs to the state’s three recognized political parties in greater numbers than ever before. New voters are registering as independents at more than twice the rate Democrats, Republicans and Libertarians combined.

Overall, nearly 35,400 new voters registered during the third quarter of the year. Here’s the Arizona Secretary of State’s breakdown of their party preferences:

Independent – 58.6 percent

Democrat – 33 percent

Republican – 8.5 percent

Libertarian – negative less than 1 percent – meaning fewer Libertarians joined the ranks of new voters than existing Libertarian voters were purged from voter rolls.

Secretary of State Jan Brewer expects the voters registering as Dems, Reps and Libs will surge shortly. “As we get closer to the presidential preference elections in 2008 where only those voters registered with a specific political party can participate, I have no doubt that we will see party registration significantly climb,” she said in a press release.

“I feel confident that the voter outreach efforts of my office, the county recorders, the political parties, and the candidates themselves will also lead to voter interest as we get closer to the 2008 election cycle,” she said.

So far though, just the opposite is happening. Nearly 39,800 new voters registered during the second quarter. Here’s the breakdown of how they registered:

Independent – 53 percent

Democrat – 36 percent

Republican – 11 percent

Libertarian – less than 1 percent

So for the third quarter, the numbers showed a decrease of about 3 percentage points for Democrats, a drop of 2½ percent for Republicans and decrease of 1 percentage point for Libertarians. Yet voters who registered as “none of the above” increased more than 5½ percentage points.

The trend seems to indicate that new voters are more interested in staying outside of the parties than they are in voting in the parties’ presidential preference elections. The Arizona presidential preference election is set for Feb. 5, so the fourth quarter voter registration results should tell the true story.

Non-voters

This news just in: Republicans croak.

Last week while I was researching a story about the Arizona Republican Party’s dismal showings during the last quarter in both voter registrations and financial contributions, Republican political consultants Bert Coleman and Nathan Sproul attributed the party’s problems to chairman Randy Pullen.

Coleman, president of Phoenix-based Coleman Dahm & Associates, and Sproul, president of Tempe-based Sproul & Associates, already were up to speed on the figures that were released earlier in the week by the Arizona Secretary of State and Federal Election Commission.

Coleman and Sproul get paid for knowing such things and for knowing how such information can be used to get Republicans elected. They’re credible sources and they certainly know the buzz among party insiders and voters alike. They told me Pullen was dividing the party with his anti-immigration reform rhetoric.

Naturally, I tried to reach Pullen for a response. State party officials declined to make him available and instead put me through to state party executive director Sean McCaffrey.

I explained the gist of my findings to McCaffrey and asked him for his take on the registration figures and finance numbers, and in particular, whether he thought there was any merit to the GOP insiders’ criticism of Pullen. McCaffrey was familiar with the topics, because he had fielded a call by Arizona Republic reporter Matthew Benson, who was working on a similar story, a short while earlier.

It turned out to be an interesting interview. McCaffrey offered this bit of insight about the third-quarter voter registration numbers, which show Democrats outpaced Republicans by nearly a 4-1 margin statewide in signing up new voters… 

“The most recent report from the Secretary of State, you have to be careful, because the numbers that they reflect are two things – one, new registrations; and inactive voters that are removed from the files because they don’t respond to mail, because they no longer live in the state, because they’ve been purged for any number of reasons. And so the total numbers that are published in that press release don’t reflect totals of just registrations. So you have to be careful in just calling them registration numbers, just by themselves.”

I replied, “Yeah, I’m aware of that, of course. And you’re also aware that Democrats and independents croak and move away as well. Dying is not just a Republican phenomenon.”

McCaffrey said, “I just want to make sure, because your colleagues over at the Republic, it seems to be a new thing for them and they’ve been here for 60 years or however long you’ve been here. And I just want to make sure it’s not going to be a miss-told story again. So, I’m the new person and I’m continually surprised at how often I correct Democrat fallacies in this state in the media.”

Oh.

So to get this important point on the record: Republicans croak – despite any fallacies to the contrary that have been printed in the Republic or spread by Democrats. In an effort to double-source McCaffrey’s GOP Finite Life Theorem, I tried to get confirmation from noted Arizona Republican Barry Goldwater, but he was unavailable for comment, because, as fate would have it, he’s dead.

My story about the GOP’s living voters and contributors can be accessed here: http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/story/100676.

And one final point, Tribune reporters and Republic reporters definitely are not colleagues. They’re rivals  –  to the bitter end.

Harry Mitchell

We already knew Rep. Harry Mitchell hired former newsman Robbie Sherwood to become his state director starting next month. Here’s the skinny on the rest of the staff moves on Mitchell’s staff.

When Mitchell, a freshman Democrat, arrived in Washington, he hired Capitol Hill veteran Gene Fisher as his chief of staff. Fisher had the resume. He previously had served as chief of staff for Rep. Ed Pastor, D-Ariz., and as legislative director for Rep. Carolyn Kilpatrick, D-Mich.

After helping Mitchell build an office staff and helping the former Mayor of Tempe become familiar with Washington protocol during his first year, Fisher announced that he planned to join his wife in retirement.

Sounds simple enough. But here are some other considerations Fisher may have pondered…

Pastor’s and Kilpatrick’s districts are Democratic strongholds. In contrast, Mitchell’s district is a Republican-leaning district with a Democratic representative. The 5th District takes in Scottsdale, Tempe, Fountain Hills, Ahwatukee Foothills and west Mesa, which together offer more Republican voters than Democratic voters. To keep their jobs, Mitchell and his staff will have to re-earn them every two years. Mitchell may never have an easy re-election.

A chief of staff in such a district naturally would find himself far more involved in one-on-one constituent work than a chief of staff in no-contest district. So if a Capitol Hill veteran like Fisher is thinking about retiring anyway, why stick around for a long election year? Eat the cake, accept everyone’s thanks and warm wishes, and get the hell out while the work days still end before the late news programs begin.

Of course, I could be wrong about all of that.

But I don’t think so.

Meanwhile, Mitchell filled Fisher’s post by promoting his state director Alexis Tameron to chief of staff. Tameron previously served as political director for the Arizona Democratic Party, so she has the political background. And now she’ll be able to transition into the top Washington position of a staff that is already up and running.

Mitchell tapped Sherwood, who already is a known commodity in the district because of his years with the East Valley Tribune, The Arizona Republic and KAET-TV’s Horizon program, to serve in Tameron’s former position in the Scottsdale office.

All Arizonans come home eventually.

Sen. Jon Kyl’s chief spokesman Andrew Wilder is transferring from Kyl’s Washington office to his Phoenix office during the next two weeks. Wilder, who has been on the Republican senator’s staff for nearly nine years, will bring his PR duties with him.

Incidentally, Andrew Wilder’s wife Rebecca Wilder is leaving her post in Washington as senior manager of media relations for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce to serve as public information officer for the Arizona Corporation Commission.

It’s a small circle really. Two corp commers, Republicans Kris Mayes and Jeff Hatch-Miller, are considering running for the U.S. House. Mayes would be a candidate to succeed retiring-under-FBI-investigation Republican Rep. Rick Renzi, while Hatch-Miller would be a candidate to oppose freshman Democrat Rep. Harry Mitchell.

Andrew Wilder previously served as a talk show producer for KTAR radio in Phoenix and as a staffer for Sen. John McCain. Rebecca Wilder previously served on former Gov. Fife Symington’s staff. They start their new Arizona assignments Nov. 5.

Former political reporter Robbie Sherwood is joining Rep. Harry Mitchell’s staff as district director starting Nov. 12. The two exchanged volleys of praise in a press release issued Wednesday.

Mitchell said, “Robbie is tremendously talented and as a journalist showed an uncanny ability to get to the bottom of the issues that affect our state the most. He will be a tremendous asset to the people of the 5th District. I’m very proud to have him on my team.” 

Sherwood said, “I have always had the deepest respect and admiration for Harry Mitchell and his record of public service. When Congressman Mitchell called and asked me to be a part of his team, I couldn’t say no. I look forward to serving Congressman Mitchell and the people of this district for many years to come.” 

Sherwood worked at the East Valley Tribune from 1989 through 1997, and at The Arizona Republic from 1997 through 2006. He also was a regular on the KAET-TV program Horizon. Since leaving journalism, he has served as communications director for the Scottsdale-based PR firm Rose & Allyn.

Interesting move. Sherwood’s current boss, Jason Rose, is running Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney’s Arizona campaign. His future boss, Mitchell, is a Democrat who happens to be one of the top targets nationwide by Republicans who would like to win back a few House seats.

Attention talk radio talkers: That’s your cue to start dissecting Sherwood’s alleged political bias as a reporter for all those years. I’ll be listening to the classic rock stations.

Sherwood told me that he isn’t concerned about job security. “I feel pretty confident that Mitchell can hold onto the seat,” he said.

In another move, Mitchell’s press secretary Seth Scott is expected to relocate from Mitchell’s Washington office to his Scottsdale office early next year. Scott will bring his PR duties with him.

Barack Obama

Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama concluded his 50-minute speech at Arizona State University on Friday with a antidote from the campaign trail. The antidote, and in particular his delivery, summed up the Obama experience. Emotional, but not exactly the stuff that public policy is built upon.

The quick version of the set-up is that Obama was in the small town of Greenwood, S.C., on short sleep, after a 1½-hour drive, on a rainy day, speaking to a group of about 20 people who didn’t appear too happy to see him.

Obama said, “I’m shaking hands, saying hello to everybody. Suddenly, I hear this voice behind me. ‘Fire it up!’ And I’m startled, but the other 20 people from Greenwood in the room, they all act like this is normal. They all say, ‘Fire it up.’ And then I hear the same voice say, ‘Ready to go!’ And the other 20 people, I hear them all say, ‘Ready to go.’ And I look back and there is this tiny woman standing there. She is about 5-3. She’s about 65 years old. She’s got a church outfit on. She’s got a big hat, glasses, and she’s smiling and she says, ‘Fire it up!’”

Obama said, “It turns out that she is a city councilwoman from Greenwood who is famous for her chants. She has been chanting for years like this. In fact, they call her The Chant Lady. And she’s very proud of this chant, so for the next five minutes, she just keeps on chanting, ‘Fire it up!’ ‘Fire it up.’ ‘Read to go!’ ‘Ready to go.’ And it’s really loud now, so I can’t campaign. I’m just standing there. I don’t know what to do. I’m looking at my staff. They shrug their shoulders. But here’s the thing, here’s the thing ASU, after about a minute or two, I’m beginning to feel kind of fired up. I feel like I’m ready to go.”

By that time, some of the people in the crowd at ASU began to shout “Fire it up!” and “Ready to go!” back to Obama. He kept right on talking, his pace and volume increasing.

He said, “So I start joining in on the chant. I start to join in. And my staff starts to join in and we’re all feeling kind of good all of a sudden. Even after we left Greenwood for the rest of the day, everybody I saw, I’d say, ‘Are you fired up?’ and they’d say, ‘I’m fired up boss!’ ‘You ready to go?’ They’d say, ‘I’m ready to go!’ And it goes to show you how one voice can change the mood of a room. And if one voice can change a room, then it can change a city. And if it can change a city, it can change a state. And if it can change a state, it can change a country. And if it can change a country, it can change the world! And so the question I’ve got for you at ASU is very simple: Are you fired up? Are you ready to go?”

By that point, Obama was shouting. He yelled again, “Are you fired up?”

The crowd cried, “Fired up!”

“Ready to go?”

The crowd yelled back, “Ready to go!”

“Fired up?”

“Fired up!”

“Ready to go?”

“Ready to go!”

“Fired up?”

“Fired up!”

“Ready to go?”

“Ready to go!”

“Let’s go change the world!”

Instantly, Motown music blared and Obama dashed off the stage and into the crowd shaking hands, a blur of motion, cameras and sound.

The Barack Obama experience.

Oh, and did I mention that he didn’t do a press conference?

Bill Clinton and Jim Pederson

It’s payback time for former U.S. Senate candidate Jim Pederson. The shopping center developer and several members of his family each have donated $2,300 to the presidential campaigns of Democrats Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

“They both helped me out considerably in my Senate race, so I owe them both,” Pederson told me.

Hillary Clinton hosted a fundraiser for Pederson in Washington, D.C., and former President Bill Clinton campaigned for Pederson in Arizona during his 2006 campaign against Republican incumbent Jon Kyl. Obama also appeared at a rally for Pederson and other Democrats.

Pederson said, “Gosh, I’ll never forget, on Election Day last year, I was out working one of the polling lines and one of our people came up and said, ‘Bill Clinton is on the phone with a talk-show radio host in Tucson promoting our campaign!’ I said, ‘You’re kidding. How can we tap into that?’ He said, ‘Well, I don’t know.’ Then five minutes later, he said, ‘Bill Clinton is on KTAR up here!’ Unsolicited, he went out and called up every talk show on radio in Arizona on Election Day promoting our campaign.”

He said, “And Barack coming out here and helping me out, those are the kind of favors that really mean a lot. And so, you know, I have an allegiance to both of them.”

In the world of politics, that means writing checks. Pederson also has been raising money for Reps. Harry Mitchell and Gabrielle Giffords for their 2008 re-election campaigns, but he has no plans to run for public office himself – at least this time around.

“There’s not too much happening on a statewide basis next year, but 2010 is going to be a big year. We’ll see what happens,” he said.

In 2010, Republican Sen. John McCain will be up for re-election to the Senate if he doesn’t win the presidency first. If McCain wins the White House, his Senate successor will have to stand for re-election anyway. Then depending on circumstances, Republican Rep. John Shadegg may have an interest in the Senate, which would open his House seat, if Shadegg gets past his own 2006 House re-election. And who knows who will be running for re-election in the seat now held by Republican Rep. Rick Renzi? Plus, the governor’s seat will be open in 2010.